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Looking Ahead to New Product Diffusion

  • Chapter
Making Innovation Last: Volume 2

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Abstract

In the previous chapter, we reviewed models that can be used to estimate the market acceptance for new products. This market acceptance is measured in terms of eventual adopters and also for the product categories where the purchasing cycles are shorter, in terms of early adopters and repeat purchasers. Clearly, knowing the repeat purchase rate for frequently purchased items is essential and must be integrated into the early sales forecasts. For durable goods, this is useful for the long-term strategy of the firm, but the more critical elements at launch time are the forecast of the first purchases and the penetration in the target population. However, because this penetration is not instantaneous or even observable during a test market, we need to understand what drives the diffusion process, and specific models have been developed to forecast this diffusion. In the next section, we develop the theory of diffusion of innovations as a social contagion process. Then, we review models of diffusion forecasts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INSEAD, Sorbonne Universités, France

    Hubert Gatignon

  2. Grenoble Ecole de Management, France

    David Gotteland & Christophe Haon

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© 2016 Hubert Gatignon, David Gotteland and Christophe Haon

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Gatignon, H., Gotteland, D., Haon, C. (2016). Looking Ahead to New Product Diffusion. In: Making Innovation Last: Volume 2. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57264-6_6

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