1969: Econometric Model Building for Growth Projections

  • Lawrence R. Klein


Emphasis in much recent work on macroeconometric model building has been placed on short-term forecasting. This is by no means a misguided activity, but it leaves undone another task of great importance to the users of econometric output. There is an evident need for longer-term analysis, capable of providing projections ahead for a decade or more. Just as many users find it essential to look ahead for the next few months or for periods up to two or three years, others find it essential, for their purposes, to look ahead for much longer stretches of time.


Econometric Model Growth Projection Brookings Model Econometric Forecast Annual Data Series 
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  1. 2.
    See L. R. Klein, Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921–1941 (New York: John Wiley, 1950).Google Scholar
  2. See L. R. Klein and A. S. Goldberger, An Econometric Model of the United States, 1929–1952 (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing, 1955).Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    See L. R. Klein and R. Kosobud, “Some Economertics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXV (May, 1961), 173–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. M. Morishima and M. Saito, “A Dynamic Analysis of the American Economy, 1902–1952,” International Economic Review, 5 (May, 1964), 125–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 4.
    S. Valavanis-Vail, “An Econometric Model of Growth, U.S.A., 1869–1953,” American Economic Review, Supplement, 45 (May, 1955), 208–221.Google Scholar
  6. 5.
    Many hypotheses about these interrelationships are to be found in R. A. Easterlin, Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1968).Google Scholar
  7. 6.
    F. M. Fisher, L. R. Klein, and Y. Shinkai, “Price and Output Aggregation in the Brookings Econometric Model,” The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, ed. by J. Duesenberry, et al. (Chicago: Rand, McNally, 1965).Google Scholar
  8. 7.
    Herman Kahn, “Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress,” Daedalus (Summer, 1967), 939–940.Google Scholar
  9. 8.
    See L. R. Klein, An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction (Helsinki: The Academic Bookstore, 1968).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Lawrence R. Klein 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lawrence R. Klein
    • 1
  1. 1.University of PennsylvaniaUSA

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