1990: A Guide to What is Known About Business Cycles

  • Victor Zarnowitz


Within the three years 1980–1982, total economic activity in the United States as represented by comprehensive time series on output and employment declined twice, in the first half of 1980 and again between mid-1981 and late 1982. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit research institution that has pursued impartial studies of the US economy for 70 years, distinguishes two recessions in this short period. Since then, however, for more than seven years real GNP has increased in each quarter except one (1986:2). Other measures of important aspects of aggregate activity (nonfarm employee hours, real personal income and sales, industrial production) also rose almost continuously. This makes the economic expansion that began in 1982:4 the longest in peacetime, according to the NBER monthly chronology of business cycles that goes back to 1854.


Business Cycle Money Supply Gross National Product Wholesale Prex Business Cycle Theory 
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© Victor Zarnowitz 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Victor Zarnowitz
    • 1
  1. 1.University of ChicagoUSA

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