1990: A Guide to What is Known About Business Cycles

  • Victor Zarnowitz


Within the three years 1980–1982, total economic activity in the United States as represented by comprehensive time series on output and employment declined twice, in the first half of 1980 and again between mid-1981 and late 1982. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit research institution that has pursued impartial studies of the US economy for 70 years, distinguishes two recessions in this short period. Since then, however, for more than seven years real GNP has increased in each quarter except one (1986:2). Other measures of important aspects of aggregate activity (nonfarm employee hours, real personal income and sales, industrial production) also rose almost continuously. This makes the economic expansion that began in 1982:4 the longest in peacetime, according to the NBER monthly chronology of business cycles that goes back to 1854.


Business Cycle Money Supply Gross National Product Wholesale Prex Business Cycle Theory 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Balke, Nathan S. and Robert J. Gordon. 1986. “Historical Data” In Gordon 1986, Appendix B.Google Scholar
  2. Burns, Arthur F. and Wesley C. Mitchell. 1946. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: NBER.Google Scholar
  3. Gordon, Robert J. ed. 1986. The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER.Google Scholar
  4. Klein, Philip A. ed. 1990. Analyzing Modern Business Cycles:Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, Inc.Google Scholar
  5. Mitchell, Wesley C. 1927. Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. New York: NBER.Google Scholar
  6. Moore, Geoffrey H. 1950. Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions. New York: NBER.Google Scholar
  7. ——. 1983. Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting. 2nd. ed. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publ. Co. for NBER.Google Scholar
  8. Moore, Geoffrey H. and Victor Zarnowitz. 1986. “The Development and Role of the NBER’s Business Cycle Chronologies” In Gordon 1986, Appendix A.Google Scholar
  9. Zarnowitz, Victor. 1981. “Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures” In Wirtschaftstheorie und Wirtschaftspolitik: Gedenkschrift für Erich Preiser. ed. by W. J. Mückl and A. E. Ott. Passau: Passavia Universitätsverlag.Google Scholar
  10. ——. 1986. “Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence.” Journal of Economic Literature 23 (June).Google Scholar
  11. ——. 1989a. “Facts and Factors in the Recent Evolution of Business Cycles in the United States.” NBER Working Paper no. 2865 (February).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. ——. 1989b. “Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Evidence: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices” NBER Working Paper no. 3131 (October).Google Scholar
  13. ——. 1989c. “Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Evidence: Causes and Effects of Observed Changes.” NBER Working Paper no. 3132 (October).Google Scholar
  14. ——. Forthcoming. Business Cycles: Theories, History, Indicators, and Forecasts. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER.Google Scholar
  15. Zarnowitz, Victor and Geoffrey H. Moore. 1986. “Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior.” In Gordon 1986, ch. 9.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Victor Zarnowitz 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Victor Zarnowitz
    • 1
  1. 1.University of ChicagoUSA

Personalised recommendations