Quo Vadis, Armenia? The South Caucasus and Great Power Politics
Throughout its history, Armenia, which emerged as an organized state by the middle of the second millennium BC, and was situated at the ancient crossroads of Orient and Occident on the highland located between the Mediterranean, the Black, and the Caspian seas, has come under the attack of rival empires. These include Assyrian, Mede, Achaemenian, Parthian, Sasanian, Arab, Seljuk and Mongol from the south and east; and Seleucid, Roman, Byzantine and Crusader from the west, who sought to absorb the land and its people into their dominions (Hovannisian, 1997, p. vii). For instance, present-day Armenia lies in the area which came under Persian rule after 428, it again became a battleground between the Ottomans and Persia until, in 1639, the two powers agreed that Western Armenia would be controlled by Turkey and eastern Armenia by Persia (Holding, 2011, pp. 16–17). Persian rule ended in eastern Armenia in 1724, when most Persian territory was divided between the Ottomans and Russia. The latter eventually established its hegemony in the South Caucasus by the early 19th century, when Tsarist Russia sought to strengthen its presence on the Black Sea coast in order to have a gateway to the Mediterranean (Trenin, 1996). According to Trenin (1996), Russian expansion in the Caucasus coincided with the decline of the Ottoman Empire and the fading power of Persia.
KeywordsForeign Policy Former Soviet Union Military Institution Association Agreement Grand Strategy
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Agayev, Zulfugar (2014) ‘Aliyev hails Armenian helicopter downing, vows more action’, Bloomberg, 16 November. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014–11–16/aliyev-hails-armenian-chopper-downing-vows-more-military-action.html.
- Ambrosio, Thomas (2005) Challenging America’s Global Preeminence: Russia’s Quest for Multipolarity. Aldershot, Hampshire, England; Burlington, VT: Ashgate.Google Scholar
- Ananicz, Szymon (2014) ‘Armenia on its way to the Customs Union (and greater dependence on Russia)’, Warsaw, Poland: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, 16 April. http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014–04-16/armenia-its-way-to-customs-union-and-greater-dependence-russia.
- Antidze, Margarita (2014) ‘Georgia coalition in crisis as Party, Foreign Minister quit’, Reuters, 5 November. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/05/us-georgia-government-idUSKBN0IP0VV20141105.
- Arango, Tim (2013) ‘Turkish leader, using conflicts, cements power’, The New York Times, 31 October.Google Scholar
- Aslund, Anders (2014) Interview by Irina, Reznik, Stephen Bierman and Henry Meyer. ‘Echoing Soviet era, Putin uses oil giant Rosneft to tighten economic grip’, Bloomberg, 30 January.Google Scholar
- Balla, Evanthia (2013) ‘Turkish and Iranian interests and policies in the South Caucasus’, NOREF Policy Brief, April.Google Scholar
- Cornell, Svante (2005) Small Nations and Great Powers: A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
- Dermitas, Serkan (2014) ‘Russia suggests reconstructing Crimea together with Turkey’, Hürriyet Daily News. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia-suggests-reconstructing-crimea-together-with-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=7 2048&NewsCatID=359.
- De Waal, Thomas (2014a) ‘Azerbaijan doesn’t want to be Western: The rhetoric and reality of Baku’s grand strategy’, Foreign Affairs, 26 September.Google Scholar
- De Waal, Thomas (2014b) ‘Expert: There is no military logic to Azerbaijan’s attack’, PanArmenian.Net, 14 November. http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/184797/.
- Frolov, Andrei (2014) ‘Military Development in Transcaucasia: an Arms Race?’, Russian International Affairs Council. 16 July. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=4075&active_id_11=38#top.
- Gasimli, Vusal (2014) ‘Armenia’s entry to the Customs Union hurts its national interests’, News.Az, January. http://www.news.az/articles/armenia/85880.
- Goodrich, Lauren and Peter Zeihan (2011) A Crucible Nations: The Geopolitics of the Caucasus. Austin, Texas: Stratfor Global Intelligence.Google Scholar
- Gurbanov, Ilgar (2013) ‘Armenia is still a “Forpost”, but Azerbaijanis Getting “New Choice” for Russia’, Strategic Outlook, 13 August.Google Scholar
- Hayrumyan, Naira (2013) ‘Gas Politics: Russia Tightens Grip on Armenian Energy Sector with New Gazprom Acquisition’, ArmeniaNow.com, 12 May. http://arme-nianow.com/news/50653/armenia_russia_gas_price_gazprom
- Hayrumyan, Naira (2014) ‘Armenia-Georgia: Different Integration Projects Mark Division between Two S. Caucasus Neighbors’, ArmeniaNow.com, 7 November. http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/55970/ armenia_georgia_free_trade_regime_eu_customs_union.
- Holding, Nicholas (2011) Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Guilford, Connecticut: The Globe Pequot Press Inc.Google Scholar
- Hovannisian, G. Richard (1997) Armenian People from Ancient to Modern Times. New York: St. Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
- International Business Publications Inc. (2013) Armenia: Country Study Guide, Volume 1 Strategic Information and Developments. Washington, USA: International Business Publications.Google Scholar
- Isahakyan, Gayane (2013) ‘Experts: Armenia may become Customs Union’s gates into Middle East and South Asia’, ArmInfo, Independent News Agency, 25 September.Google Scholar
- Jarosiewicz, Aleksandra (2014) ‘Azerbaijan — a growing problem for the West’, Warsaw, Poland: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, 15 September. http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2014–09–15/azerbaijan-a-growing-problem-west.
- Jenkins, Gareth H. (2012) Occasional Allies, Enduring Rivals: Turkey’s Relations with Iran. Singapore: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies.Google Scholar
- Kennedy-Pipe, Caroline (1998) Russia and the Word1917–1991. London: Arnold.Google Scholar
- Lukyanov, Fedor (2014) ‘Third Decade Diplomacy’, Russia in Global Affairs, No. 1, January–March.Google Scholar
- Matusiak, Marek (2014) ‘The political crisis in Georgia: Which way next?’, Warsaw, Poland: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, 15 November. http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014–11–05/political-crisis-georgia-which-way-next.
- Mearsheimer, John J. (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.Google Scholar
- Mearsheimer, John J. (2014) ‘Getting Ukraine wrong’, The New York Times, 13 March.Google Scholar
- Nygren, Bertil (2010) ‘Conclusions: Visions of Russia’s Future Foreign Policy’, in Bertil Nygren, Bo Huldt, Patrik Ahlgren, Pekka Sivonen, and Susanna Huldt (eds.) Russia on Our Minds: Russian SeSecurity Policy and Northern Europe. Stockholm: National Defence College.Google Scholar
- Palley, Thomas (2003) ‘Lifting the Natural Resource Curse’, Foreign Service Journal, 80, December, pp. 54–61.Google Scholar
- Panarin, Igor (2014) ‘Putin’s New Ideology: Developing Russian Civilization’, RT, 17 January. http://rt.com/politics/putin-election-president-panarin-955/.
- Politkovskaya, Anna (2005) Putin’s Russia. New York: Henry Holt and Company.Google Scholar
- Ramezanzadeh, Abdollah (2009) ‘Iran’s Role as Mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis’, in Bruno Coppieters (ed.), in Contested Borders in the Caucasus. Brussels, Belgium: VUB University Press.Google Scholar
- Ray, Julie and Neli Esipova (2014) ‘Russian approval of Putin soars to highest level in years’, Gallup, 18 July. http://www.gallup.com/poll/173597/russian-approv-al-putin-soars-highest-level-years.aspx.
- Reznik, Irina, Stephen Bierman and Henry Meyer (2014) ‘Echoing Soviet era, Putin uses oil giant Rosneft to tighten economic grip’, Bloomberg, 30 January.Google Scholar
- Schweller, Randall L. (2009) ‘Neoclassical Realism and State Mobilisation: Expansionist Ideology in the Age of Mass Politics’, in Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro (eds), Neoclassical Realism, The State, and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Shevtsova, Lilia (2007) Russia Lost in Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
- Suny, Ronald Grigor (2009) ‘The Pawn of Great Powers: The East-West Competition for Caucasia’, Journal of Eurasian Studies, (1) pp. 10–25.Google Scholar
- Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2009) ‘Neoclassical Realism and Resource Extraction: State Building for Future War’, in Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro (eds), Neoclassical Realism, The State, and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Taylor, Paul (2013) ‘Analysis: Ukraine fiasco raises doubts about EU Neighborhood Policy’, Reuters, 29 November. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/29/us-eu-ukraine-neighbourhood-analysis-idUSBRE9AS0GA20131129.
- Thorhallsson, Baldur (2012) ‘Small States in the UN Security Council: Means of Influence?’ The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, (7) pp. 135–170.Google Scholar
- Thucydides (2010) The History of Peloponnesian War. New York: Barnes & Noble Classics.Google Scholar
- Trenin, Dmitri (1996) ‘Russia’s Security Interests and Policies in the Caucasus Region’, in Bruno Coppieters (ed.), Contested Borders in the Caucasus. Brussels, Belgium: VUB University Press.Google Scholar
- Tsygankov, Andrey (2014) ‘How the West Enabled the Rise of Russian Nationalism’, The Nation, 12 May. http://www.thenation.com/article/178826/how-west-enabled-rise-russian-nationalism#.
- Villari, Luigi (1906) Fire and sword in the Caucasus. London : T. F. Unwin.Google Scholar
- Zakaria, Fareed (2014) ‘The Rise of Putinism’, The Washington Post, 31 July. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-the-rise-of-putinism/2014/07/31/2c9711d6–18e7–11e4–9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html.