Abstract
The stabilization of bipolar instability,1 based on the shared fear of nuclear war, was the requirement for the human adventure to be able to continue. The United States and the Soviet Union, “enemies by position,”2 strategic adversaries and ideological rivals, transformed their relationship into a routine, particularly after the Cuban missile crisis, which preceded their joint efforts to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons.3 The “double hegemony” of the “enemy brothers” seemed to create conditions for greater autonomy in Europe and Asia, expressed both in the Sino-Soviet split and the “Prague Spring,” and in Gaullism and Ostpolitik. Decolonization accelerated the integration of Europe, and the invasion of Czechoslovakia confirmed the nature of Soviet imperialism as well as the passivity of the Western democracies and the recognition of the demarcation line between the two camps. Nevertheless, although the evolution of the Cold War corresponded to Aron’s predictions, the period of relative optimism was about to end.
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Notes
Raymond Aron, “Les chances d’un règlement européen,” Politique étrangère, vol. 14, no. 6, 1949, 255.
Raymond Aron, Paix et guerre entre les nations, Paris, Calmann-Lévy, 1962, 147.
Georges-Henri Soutou, “Raymond Aron et la crise de Cuba,” in Maurice Vaïsse (coord.), L’Europe et la crise de Cuba, Paris, Fayard, 1993.
Raymond Aron, “La fin du système bipolaire,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 970
Raymond Aron, “Après l’après-guerre” in Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997.
Raymond Aron, République impériale: Les États-Unis dans le monde 1945–1972, Paris, Calmann-Lévy, 1973, 325.
Raymond Aron, “Détente et condominium,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1318.
See also Raymond Aron, “De Yalta à Moscou,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997.
Raymond Aron, “Défaite au Vietnam,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1501.
Raymond Aron, “Le ciel ne va pas tomber sur nos têtes,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1469.
See also Raymond Aron, “La mystification de Vladivostok,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1433.
Aron dialogue avec Alexandre Soljénitsyne, “La IIIe guerre mondiale n’aura pas lieu,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1543.
Raymond Aron, “Décrispation tous azimuts,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1552.
Raymond Aron, “Conférence introuvable,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1604.
See also Pierre Hassner, “Détente and the Politics of Instability in Southern Europe,” in Johan Holst and Uwe Nehrlich (eds.), Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: New Aims, New Arms, New York, Crane, Russak, 1977, 41–59 and
Raymond Aron, “Limites de la coopération franco-soviétique” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1580–1581.
Raymond Aron, “Les communistes français et Moscou I. Les deux volets du dyp-tique,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1658.
Raymond Aron, “Directoire européen?” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1650.
Raymond Aron, “Contre la psychose de guerre,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1625.
Raymond Aron, “Diplomatie française en crise,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1664.
Raymond Aron, “La France en première ligne,” in Raymond Aron, De Giscard à Mitterrand (1977–1983), Paris, Editions de Fallois, 2005, 167.
See also Odd Arne Westad, “Moscow and the Angolan Crisis, 1974–1976: A New Pattern of Intervention,” Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 8–9, 1996, 21–37.
Raymond Aron, “La détente après Helsinki,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1625.
Raymond Aron, Introduction à la philosophie de l’histoire: Essai sur les limites de l’objectivité historique, Paris, Gallimard, 1938
Raymond Aron, Essai sur la théorie de l’histoire dans l’Allemagne contemporaine. La philosophie critique de l’histoire, Paris, Gallimard, 1938.
Raymond Aron, Mémoires, Paris, Julliard, 1983, 666–680.
Raymond Aron, Plaidoyer pour l’Europe décadente, Paris, Laffont, 1977, 26.
Raymond Aron, Le Grand Schisme, Paris, Gallimard, 1948, 337.
Raymond Aron, Espoir et peur du siècle. Essais non partisans, Paris, Calmann-Lévy, 1957, 228.
Raymond Aron, “La crise et les successions. Les incertitudes du Kremlin,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1589.
Raymond Aron, “My Defense of Our Decadent Europe,” Encounter, vol. 49, no. 3, 1977, 11–32.
See also Raymond Aron, “Démocraties en crise le syndrome de Weimar,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1721–1725.
Cfr. Raymond Aron, Le Spectateur engagé, Paris, Julliard, 1981, 280.
Raymond Aron, “La victoire de Caramanlis de l’exil à l’investiture,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997
Raymond Aron, “Après Franco les équivoques de la transition,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997.
Raymond Aron, “Rien de nouveau à Madrid,” in Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1977), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997.
Ernest Gellner, “Plaidoyer pour une libéralisation manquée,” in Ernest Gellner, Spectacles and Predicaments, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1979, 339–340.
See also John Hall, Power and Liberties, Harmondsworth, Pelican, 1986, 203–210.
see Ernest Gellner, “From Revolution to Liberalisation,” Government and Opposition, vol. 11, no. 3, 1976, 252–272
Raymond Aron, “On Liberalization,” Government and Opposition, vol. 14, no. 1, 1979, 37–57.
Ernest Gellner, “Plaidoyer pour une libéralisation manquée,” Government and Opposition, vol. 14, no. 1, 1979, 58–65.
Raymond Aron, “La nature du régime soviétique,” in Raymond Aron, Les Dernières Années du siècle, Paris, Julliard, 1984, 139–140.
Raymond Aron, “De l’impérialisme américain à l’hégémonisme soviétique,” Commentaire, vol. 1, no. 5, 1979, 3–14.
Raymond Aron, “L’hégémonisme soviétique An I,” Commentaire, vol. 3, no. 11, 1980, 349–362.
Raymond Aron, Les Dernières Années du siècle, Paris, Julliard, 1984, 242–244.
Exceptions include Andrei Amalrik and Emmanuel Todd, Andrei Amalrik, Will the Soviet Union Survive in 1984? London, Allen Lane, 1970.
Emmanuel Todd, La Chute finale, Paris, Laffont, 1976.
See also Adam Watson, “An ‘Incredibly Swift Transition’ Reflections on the End of the Cold War,” in Melvyn Leffler and Odd Arne Westad (eds.), The Cambridge History of the Cold War III: Endings, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2010, 509.
Marco Cesa, “Realist Visions of the End of the Cold War Morgenthau, Aron, Waltz,” British Journal of Politics and International Relations, vol. 11, no. 2, 2009, 177–191.
Raymond Aron, Les Guerres en chaîne, Paris, Gallimard, 1951, 133.
Raymond Aron, The Century of Total War, Boston, MA, Beacon Press, 1954, 336.
Raymond Aron, “L’histoire va dans le sens de la liberté,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 2: La Coexistence (1956–1964), vol. 2, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1994, 252–253.
Raymond Aron, “La force n’est qu’un moyen,” in Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 2: La Coexistence (1956–1964), vol. 2, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1994, 257.
Raymond Aron, Penser la liberté, penser la démocratie, Paris, Gallimard, 2005, 406.
Alain Besançon, Court traité de soviétologie à l’usage des autorités civiles, militaires et religieuses, Paris, Hachette, 1976, 9–17.
Raymond Aron, George Kennan, Robert Oppenheimer, et al., Les Colloques de Rheinfelden, Paris, Calmann-Lévy, 1960, 101–122.
Raymond Aron, “La doctrine Sonnenfeldt,” in Raymond Aron, Les Articles du Figaro, Tome 3: Les Crises (1965–1911), vol. 3, Paris, Editions de Fallois, 1997, 1674.
Raymond Aron, “La France en première ligne,” in Raymond Aron, De Giscard à Mitterrand (1911–1983), Paris, Editions de Fallois, 2005, 138.
Kurt Campbell, “Prospects and Consequences of Soviet Decline,” in Joseph Nye, Graham Allison, Albert Carnesales (eds.), Fateful Visions: Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe, Cambridge, MA, Ballinger, 1988, 153.
Pierre Hassner, “L’Histoire du XXe siècle,” in Raymond Aron. 1905–1983, Histoire et Politique, Paris, Julliard, 1985, 231.
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© 2015 José Colen and Elisabeth Dutartre-Michaut
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Gaspar, C. (2015). Fin De Siècle: Aron and the End of the Bipolar System. In: Colen, J., Dutartre-Michaut, E. (eds) The Companion to Raymond Aron. Recovering Political Philosophy. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-52243-6_8
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