Turbulent Times

Abstract

Taiwan threatened post-Cold War stability, as it had during the 1971–89 U.S.-China “tacit alliance.” In the mid-1990s, tensions mounted, with the potential for a triangular confrontation generating conflict. Taiwan’s silence over Deng Xiaoping’s “one country two systems” formulation for Hong Kong and Macao—also aimed at Taipei—raised the stakes. President Lee Teng-hui adopted an assertive tone before Taiwan’s first legislative elections in December 1995, and presidential polls the following March. In 1994, the PLA conducted a command-post exercise (CPX)—using communication links, but no troops—in which commanders refined joint-services maneuvers aimed at occupying Taiwan if ordered. This exercise provided the template for events that followed.⁵ In January 1995, Jiang Zemin elaborated Deng’s offer in his “8-point proposal.” After reunification, Taiwan would retain its domestic and foreign economic and technical structures and practices. Exercising “a high degree of autonomy,” Taiwan would maintain legislative and judicial independence “including that of final adjudication.” It would retain its political, administrative, and military institutions; none would be sent from the mainland. Instead, some central posts would be offered to it.⁶

Certain foreign forces have further meddled in the issue of Taiwan, interfering in China’s internal affairs. All this not only impedes the process of China’s peaceful reunification but also threatens peace, stability and development in the Asia-Pacific region.¹

—Jiang Zemin

We have, within a few hundred miles of Taiwan, a carrier, Independence. We have a guided missile cruiser and a guided missile destroyer also nearby. One of the guided missile cruisers is close enough that it actually was the one that observed the missile test and we also have some reconnaissance systems that observed the missile test.²

—William Perry

A week ago I signed the orders directing the deployment of the Independence battle group from Okinawa to patrolling just east of Taiwan. At the same time, I signed an order moving the deployment of the Nimitz battle group from the Gulf of Arabia to join up with the Independence off of Taiwan…. I do not believe that the Chinese have any intention of attacking Taiwan.³

—William Perry

China and the United States are two great nations that have significant differences. Therefore, to develop friendly relations and cooperation between our two countries not only serves the fundamental interests of the two countries, of the two peoples, but they are also of great importance to the maintenance ofpeace and stability in the Asia Pacific region and in the world as a whole.⁴

—Gen. Chi Haotian