Advertisement

The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making: Experimental Evidence

  • Steven B. Redd
Part of the Advances in Foreign Policy Analysis book series (AFPA)

Abstract

Although the poliheuristic theory of decision making has been in existence for only a short while, it has already made significant strides toward becoming a respected theory in the field of foreign policy analysis. (See Geva et al. 1996c; Mintz and Geva 1994; Mintz et al. 1997.)1 The poliheuristic theory attempts to bridge the gap between cognitive/psychological (see Stein and Welch 1 997) and rational choice (see Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman 1990,1992;Morrow 1 997) approaches to the study of foreign policy decision making (Mintz 1997).2 Since 1994, studies incorporating the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making have been presented at numerous conferences, including the American Political Science Association (APSA), International Studies Association (ISA), and Peace Science Society (International) meetings, and have appeared in the American Political Science Review and several edited books (DeRouen 2001; Geva and Mintz 1997; Mintz et al. 1997; Redd 2000).

Keywords

Decision Maker Foreign Policy Decision Task Prospect Theory Decision Strategy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Abelson, Robert P., and Ariel Levi. 1985. “Decision Making and Decision Theory.” In The Handbook of Social Psychology, vol. 1, ed. Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson. 3rd ed. New York: Random House, 231–309.Google Scholar
  2. Anderson, Paul A. 1983. “Decision Making by Objection and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” Administrative Science Quarterly 28 (June): 201–222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Astorino-Courtois, Allison. 2000. “The Effects of Stakes and Threat on Foreign Policy Decision-Making.” Political Psychology 21 (September): 489–510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Beach, Lee Roy, and Terence R. Mitchell. 1978. “A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies.” Academy of Management Review 3 (April): 439–449.Google Scholar
  5. Billings, Robert S., and Lisa L. Scherer. 1988. “The Effects of Response Mode and Importance on Decision-Making Strategies: Judgment Versus Choice.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 41 (February): 1–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Billings, Robert S., and Stephen A. Marcus. 1983. “Measures of Compensatory and Noncompensatory Models of Decision Behavior: Process Tracing Versus Policy Capturing.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31 (June): 331–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and David Lalman. 1990. “Domestic Opposition and Foreign War.” American Political Science Review 84 (3): 747–765.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
  9. Burke, John P., and Fred I. Greenstein. 1989. How Presidents Test Reality: Decisions on Vietnam, 1954 & 1965. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  10. DeRouen, Karl R. 1994. “The Decision Not to Use Force: A Noncompensatory Perspective.” Discussion paper 21. Program in Foreign Policy Decision Making, Texas A&M University.Google Scholar
  11. DeRouen, Karl R., ed. 2001. Historical Encyclopedia of U.S. Presidential Use of Force, 1789–2000. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
  12. Fiske, Susan T., Donald R. Kinder, and W. Michael Larter. 1983. “The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 19 (July): 381–400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Ford, J. Kevin, Neal Schmitt, Susan L. Schechtman, Brian M. Hults, and Mary L. Doherty. 1989. “Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 43 (February): 75–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. George, Alexander L. 1979. “The Causal Nexus Between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision-Making Behavior: The ‘Operational Code’ Belief System.” In Psychological Models of International Politics, ed. Lawrence S. Falkowski. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 95–124.Google Scholar
  15. Geva, Nehemia, and Alex Mintz. 1994. “Framing the Options for Peace in the Middle East.” Paper presented at the annual conference of ECAAR-Israel, “The Political Economy of Peace in the Middle East,” Haifa, Israel, June 20.Google Scholar
  16. Geva, Nehemia, and Alex Mintz. 1997. Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
  17. Geva, Nehemia, Karl R. DeRouen, and Alex Mintz. 1993. “The Political Incentive Explanation of Democratic Peace: Evidence from Experimental Research.” International Interactions 18 (September): 215–229.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Geva, Nehemia, Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Alex Mintz. 1996a. “Marketing the Peace Process in the Middle East: The Effectiveness of Thematic and Evaluative Framing in Jordan and Israel.” In Arms Spending, Development and Security, ed. Manas Chatterji, Jacques Fontanel, and Akira Hattori. New Delhi: APH Publishing, 359–377.Google Scholar
  19. Geva, Nehemia, Russell Driggers, and Alex Mintz. 1996b. “Effects of Ambiguity on Strategy and Choice in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Analysis Using Computerized Process Tracing.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Houston, TX, October 25–27.Google Scholar
  20. Geva, Nehemia, Steven B. Redd, and Alex Mintz. 1996c. “Structure and Process in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Experimental Assessment of Poliheuristic Propositions.” Paper presented at the 37th annual meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, April 16–20.Google Scholar
  21. Glad, Betty. 1990. Psychological Dimensions of War. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
  22. Hermann, Margaret G. 1986. Political Psychology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
  23. Hermann, Margaret G., and Charles F. Hermann. 1989. “Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry.” International Studies Quarterly 33 (December): 361–387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hogarth, Robin M. 1987. Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decision, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
  25. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1984. “Choices, Values, and Frames.” American Psychologist 39 (4): 341–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Klein, Gary. 1989. “Strategies of Decision Making.” Military Review 69: 56–64.Google Scholar
  28. Langer, Ellen J., and Robert P. Abelson. 1972. “The Semantics of Asking a Favor: How to Succeed in Getting Help Without Really Dying.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 24 (October): 26–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Levy, Jack S. 1992a. “An Introduction to Prospect Theory.” Political Psychology 13 (2): 171–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Levy, Jack S. 1992b. “Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems.” Political Psychology 13 (2): 283–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Levy, Jack S. 1997. “Prospect Theory and the Cognitive-Rational Debate.” In Decision-making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 33–50.Google Scholar
  32. Maoz, Zeev. 1990. “Framing the National Interest: The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions in Group Settings.” World Politics 43 (October): 77–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Mintz, Alex. 1993. “The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 (December): 595–618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Mintz, Alex. 1995. “The ‘Noncompensatory Principle’ of Coalition Formation.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 7 (3): 335–349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mintz, Alex. 1997. “Foreign Policy Decisionmaking: Bridging the Gap Between the Cognitive Psychology and Rational Actor ‘Schools.’” In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1–7.Google Scholar
  36. Mintz, Alex. 1999. “The Poliheuristic Theory of War and Peace Decision Making.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, September 2–5.Google Scholar
  37. Mintz, Alex, and Nehemia Geva. 1993. “The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision.” Texas A&M University. Mimeo.Google Scholar
  38. Mintz, Alex, and Nehemia Geva. 1994. “The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making.” Paper presented at the conference on Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, March.Google Scholar
  39. Mintz, Alex, and Nehemia Geva. 1997. “The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decisionmaking.” In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 81–101.Google Scholar
  40. Mintz, Alex, Nehemia Geva, and Steven B. Redd. 1994. “Testing the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision with Evolving Choice Sets.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Urbana-Champaign, IL, November 3–5.Google Scholar
  41. Mintz, Alex, Nehemia Geva, Steven B. Redd, and Amy Carnes. 1997. “The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform.” American Political Science Review 91 (3): 553–566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Morrow, James D. 1997. “A Rational Choice Approach to International Conflict.” In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 11–31.Google Scholar
  43. Olshavsky, Richard W. 1979. “Task Complexity and Contingent Processing in Decision Making: A Replication and Extension.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 24 (December): 300–316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., Brian L. Job. 1986. “The President and the Political Use of Force.” American Political Science Review 80 (2): 541–566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Ostrom, Thomas M., John H. Lingle, John B. Pryor, and Nehemia Geva. 1980. “Cognitive Organization of Person Impressions.” In Person Memory: The Cognitive Basis of Social Perception, ed. Reid Hastie et al. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 55–88.Google Scholar
  46. Payne, John W. 1976. “Task Complexity and Contingent Processing in Decision Making: An Information Search and Protocol Analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16: 366–387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Payne, John W., James R. Bettman, and Eric J. Johnson. 1988. “Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 14 (July): 534–552.Google Scholar
  48. Payne, John W., James R. Bettman, and Eric J. Johnson. 1993. The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Redd, Steven B. 2000. “The Influence of Advisers on Decision Strategies and Choice in Foreign Policy Decision Making.” Ph.D. dissertation, Texas A&M University.Google Scholar
  50. Russo, J. Edward, and Barbara Anne Dosher. 1983. “Strategies for Multiattribute Binary Choice.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 9 (October): 676–696.Google Scholar
  51. Simon, Herbert A. 1957. Models of Man. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
  52. Stein, Janice Gross, and David A. Welch. 1997. “Rational and Psychological Approaches to the Study of International Conflict: Comparative Strengths and Weaknesses.” In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 51–77.Google Scholar
  53. Steinbruner, John D. 1974. The Cybernetic Theory of Decision: New Dimensions of Political Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  54. Tetlock, Philip E. 1992. “The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward a Social Contingency Model.” In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, ed. Mark P. Zanna. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 331–376.Google Scholar
  55. Tetlock, Philip E., and Richard Boettger. 1989. “Accountability: A Social Magnifier of the Dilution Effect.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57 (September): 388–398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Walker, Stephen G. 1987a. Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
  57. Walker, Stephen G. 1987b. “Role Theory and the Origins of Foreign Policy.” In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, ed. Charles F. Hermann, Charles W. Kegley Jr., and James N. Rosenau. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 269–284.Google Scholar
  58. Zinnes, Dina A., and Robert G. Muncaster. 1997. “Prospect Theory Versus Expected Utility Theory: A Dispute Sequence Appraisal.” In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 183–211.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Alex Mintz 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Steven B. Redd

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations