Theories of Revolution and the Case of Peru

  • Cynthia McClintock


In 1991 and especially in 1992 prior to the September capture of Abimael Guzmán, some analysts of the Shining Path (SL or Sendero) were forecasting a victory for the guerrilla movement within five years or less. Most believed that a revolutionary victory was possible. Said Peruvian analyst Enrique Obando: “The state is on the verge of defeat. The armed forces could tumble down at any moment.”1 Warned Gustavo Gorriti: “If they [the Shining Path] continue this way, they will be able to beat the Peruvian state.”2 Concluded a U.S.-based analyst: “The Shining Path has become a direct threat to the government of Peru.”3 In 1989, SL inflicted more deaths, controlled a greater percentage of national territory, and was approved in opinion polls by a larger percentage of citizens than the guerrilla movement in El Salvador.4


Comparative Politics Guerrilla Movement Social Revolution Democratic Consolidation Revolutionary Movement 
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  1. 3.
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© David Scott Palmer 1994

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  • Cynthia McClintock

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