Abstract
We began this book with the goal of determining the extent to which extreme weather and extreme vulnerability were responsible for the historic 2011 tornado death toll. Our analysis finds that extreme weather—meaning the number, strength, and location of the year’s tornadoes—can explain much of the deadly season. We have employed a variety of approaches to reach this assessment, including out-ofsample projections based on regression analysis of tornado fatalities and applying recent ratios of fatalities to damage, buildings damaged, and injuries to the impacts of this year’s tornadoes. While the different methods lead to slightly different projections, each approach implies that based on the impacts observed, we would have expected a death toll not seen in decades in the United States. Admittedly, each of the approaches we have used has its limitations, and this is why we have employed a variety of approaches.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Hammer, B., and T. W. Schmidlin, 2002: Response to Warnings during the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado: Reasons and Relative Injury Rates. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 577–581.
McLaughlin, D., et al, 2009: Short-wavelength technology and the potential for distributed networks of small radar systems. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1797–1817
National Academy of Sciences. 2002. Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD. National Academies Press (available online at: http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309084660/html/1.html).
Schmidlin, T. W., B. O. Hammer, Y. Ono, and P. S. King, 2009: Tornado Shelter-Seeking Behavior and Tornado Shelter Options Among Mobile Home Residents in the United States. Nat. Hazards, 48, 191–201.
Simmons, K. M., and D. Sutter, 2009: False Alarms, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties. Weather, Climate and Society, 1, 38–53.
Simmons, K. M., and D. Sutter. 2011. Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society.
Stensrud, D. J., et al., 2009: Convective-scale warn on forecast: A vision for 2020. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1487–1499.
Sutter, D., and S. Erickson, 2010: The Time Cost of Tornado Warnings and the Savings with Storm Based Warnings. Weather, Climate and Society, 2, 103–112.
Wurman, J., C. Alexander, P. Robinson, and Y. Richardson, 2007: Low-level winds in tornadoes and potential catastrophic tornado impacts in urban areas. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 31–46.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Simmons, K.M., Sutter, D. (2012). Lessons Learned and the Path Forward. In: Deadly Season. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-933876-12-5_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-933876-12-5_6
Publisher Name: American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-878220-25-7
Online ISBN: 978-0-933876-12-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)