Risk Analysis

  • Terje Aven
Part of the Springer Series in Reliability Engineering book series (RELIABILITY)


The basis of the risk analysis is the systematic use of analytical—largely probability-based—methods which have been constantly improved over the past years. Probabilistic risk assessments for large technological systems, for instance, include tools such as fault and event trees. The processing of data is often guided by inferential statistics and organised in line with decision analytic procedures. These tools have been developed to generate knowledge about cause–effect relationships, express the strength of these relationships and characterise remaining uncertainties. In short, risk analysis specify what is at stake, assess uncertainties and calculate probabilities for (un)wanted consequences, to produce a risk picture.


Risk Analysis Epistemic Uncertainty Fault Tree Aleatory Uncertainty Probabilistic Risk Assessment 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. 1.
    Ale B, Bellamy LJ, van der Boom R, Cooper J, Cooke RM, Goossens LHJ, Hale AR, Kurowicka D, Morales O, Roelen ALC, Spouge J (2009) Further development of a causal model for air transport safety (CATS): building the mathematical heart, Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(9):1433-1441.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Anton PS, Anderson R, Mesic R, Scheiern M (2003) The vulnerability assessment & mitigation methodology. Rand report. ISBN 0 8330-3434-0.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Apostolakis G (1990) The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science 250:1359–1364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Apostolakis GE (2004) How useful is quantitative risk assessment? Risk Anal 24:515- 520.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Apostolakis GE, Lemon DM (2005). A screening methodology for the identification and ranking of infrastructure vulnerabilities due to terrorism, Risk Anal 25(2):361-376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Aven T (1992) Reliability and Risk analysis. Elsevier, London.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Aven T (2003) Foundations of risk analysis. Wiley, NJMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Aven T (2007) A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis and management covering both safety and security. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 92:745–754CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Aven T (2008) Risk analysis. Wiley, NJMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Aven T (2008) A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93:790–797CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Aven T (2011) Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practice. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 96, 509-514Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Aven T (2009) Trends in risk analysis. International Journal of Performability Engineering. 5, 447-461.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Aven T, Hauge S, Sklet S, Vinnem JE (2006) Methodology for incorporating human and organizational factors in risk analyses for offshore installations. Int J Mater Struct Reliab 4:1–14Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Aven T, Renn O (2009) On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. J. Risk Research, 12, 1-11.Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Aven T, Vinnem JE (2007) Risk management, with applications from the offshore oil and gas industry. Springer Verlag, LondonGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Aven T, Zio E (2011) Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision-making. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 96:64- 74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Bedford T, Cooke R (2001) Probabilistic Risk Analysis. Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Publishing Ltd, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Cabinet Office (2002) Risk: improving government’s capability to handle risk and uncertainty. Strategy unit report, UKGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Coolen FPA (2004) On the use of imprecise probabilities in reliability. Qual Reliab Eng Int 20:193–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Coolen FPA, Utkin LV (2007) Imprecise probability: a concise overview. In: Aven T, Vinnem JE (eds) Risk, reliability and societal safet. Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Stavanger, 25–27 June 2007. Taylor & Francis, LondonGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Dewooght J (1998) Model uncertainty and model inaccuracy. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 59:171–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Duijm NJ, Goossens L (2006) Quantifying the influence of safety management on the reliability of safety barriers. J Hazard Mater 130(3):284–292CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 22.
    Fischhoff B (1995) Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process. Risk Anal 15:501–527CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Flage R, Aven T, Zio E (2008)Alternative representations of uncertainty in system reliability and risk analysis—review and discussion. ESREL 2008Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Garrick JB et al (2004) Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 86(2):129–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Gudder S (2000) What is fuzzy probability theory? Found Phys 30(10):1663–1678MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Haimes YY (2004) Risk modelling, assessment, and management, 2nd ed. Wiley, New JerseyCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Helton JC, Burmaster DE (1996) On the treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessment of complex systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54(2–3) (Special Issue on Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty)Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Hollnagel E (2004) Barriers and accident prevention. Ashgate Publishers, AldershotGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    HSE (2001) Reducing risk, protecting people. HES Books, ISBN 0717621510Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) (2005) White paper on risk governance. Towards an integrative approach. Author: O. Renn with Annexes by P. Graham. International Risk Governance Council, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Kaplan S, Garrick BJ (1981) On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Anal 1:11–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Léger A., Duval C., Farret R., Weber P., Levrat E. and Iung, B., Modeling of Human and Organizational Impacts for System Risk Analyses, In Conference proceedings PSAM 9, Hong Kong, 19-23/5-08, 2008.Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Leveson N (2007) Modeling and analyzing risk in complex socio-technical systems. NeTWork workshop, Berlin, 27–29 Sep 2007Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    Lindley DV (2006) Understanding uncertainty. Wiley, HobokenMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Léger A, Duval C, Farret R, Weber P, Levrat E, Iung B (2008) Modeling of human and organizational impacts for system risk analyses, In: conference proceedings PSAM 9, Hong Kong, 19-23/5-08, 2008.Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Mohaghegh Z, Kazemi R, Mosleh A (2009) Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 1000-1018.Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    Natvig B (1983) Possibility versus probability. Fuzzy Sets Syst 10:31–36MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Nilsen T, Aven T (2003) Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 79:309–317CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Papazoglou IA, Bellamy LJ, Hale AR, Aneziris ON, Post JG, Oh JIH (2003) I-Risk: development of an integrated technical and Management risk methodology for chemical installations. J Loss Prev Process Ind 16:575–591CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Paté-Cornell ME (1996) Uncertainties in risk analysis: six levels of treatment. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54(2–3):95–111CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 42.
    Paté-Cornell EM, Murphy DM (1996) Human and management factors in probabilistic risk analysis: the SAM approach and observations from recent applications. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 53:115–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. 43.
    Paté-Cornell E, Dillon R (2001) Probabilistic risk analysis for the NASA space shuttle: a brief history and current work. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 74:345–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    PSA, Regulations Petroleum Safety Authority, Norway, 2001.Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    Rasmussen J (1997) Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem. Saf Sci 27(2/3):183–213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. 46.
    Reid SG (1992) Acceptable risk. In: Blockley DI (ed) Engineering safety. McGraw-Hill, New York, pp 138–166Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    Renn O (1998) Three decades of risk research: accomplishments and new challenges. J Risk Res 1(1):49–71 (1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. 48.
    Rosa EA (1998) Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk. J Risk Res 1:15–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
    Røed W, Mosleh A, Vinnem JE, Aven T (2008) On the use of hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf (To appear)Google Scholar
  50. 50.
    Sandøy M, Sandøy M, Aven T, Ford D (2005) On integrating risk perspectives in project management. Risk Manag Int J 7:7–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. 51.
    Singpurwalla N (2006) Reliability and Risk. A Bayesian Perspective. Wiley, NJMATHGoogle Scholar
  52. 52.
    Shafer G (1976) A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton University Press, PrincetonMATHGoogle Scholar
  53. 53.
    Stirling A (1998) Risk at a turning point?’. J Risk Res 1:97–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. 54.
    Stirling A (2007) Science, precaution and risk assessment: towards more measured and constructive policy debate. Eur Mol Biol Org Rep 8:309–315Google Scholar
  55. 55.
    Unwin SD (1986) A fuzzy set theoretic foundation for vagueness in uncertainty analysis. Risk Anal 6(1):27–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Utkin LV, Coolen FPA (2007) Imprecise reliability: an introductory overview. In: Levitin G (ed) Computational intelligence in reliability engineering—new metaheuristics, neural and fuzzy techniques in reliability. Springer, LondonGoogle Scholar
  57. 57.
    Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inform Control 8:338–353MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. 58.
    Zadeh LA (1968) Probability measures of fuzzy events. J Math Anal Appl 23:421–427MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of StavangerStavangerNorway

Personalised recommendations