An Application of Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Longitudinal Collision Risk of the NOPAC Route in an ADS Environment

  • Sakae Nagaoka
Conference paper


This paper deals with an application of the Monte Carlo method for estimating the longitudinal collision risk of a hypothetical route system where separation minima are reduced to 50 or 30NM under an ADS environment. This method enables us to estimate the longitudinal overlap probability together with average relative along-track speed without calculating complicated convolutions. This paper first describes the method, then, discusses some results and remaining issues briefly.


Velocity Error Separation Minimum Double Exponential International Civil Aviation Organization Collision Risk 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sakae Nagaoka
    • 1
  1. 1.Electronic Navigation Research InstituteTokyoJapan

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