Recent accident frequency on fixed installations in France and in the EU
Major accidents still occur on process industry plants as recent disasters in Enschede in 2000 on a firework storage, in Toulouse in 2001 on a fertilizer plant reminded us. The trend is approximately of 30 to 40 major accidents per year through EU [1,2]. Control of these major accidents involving hazardous materials is the main objective of the Seveso II Directive. In this context, it could be useful for risk analysts, decision and policy makers in France to have an order of magnitude of historical major accident frequencies on fixed installations in France and in the EU. In particular, an estimate of 3 10-3 major accident per Seveso site per year was recently (2002) introduced in some EC communication .
The aim of this paper is to give some preliminary results about firsts steps of a state of the art. The objective is to present basic results on orders of magnitude of frequency estimates in France (global data, no deep statistical analysis, simplified assumptions) that should be improved in the future. These results are only based on historical analysis. These frequency estimates are compared with EU frequencies. Some concerns and warnings about the significance of these basic results and their possible use are being discussed.
KeywordsRisk Index Frequency Estimate Hazardous Material Fatal Accident Major Accident
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