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Risk Based Decision Model for Maximal Ship Entry to the Ports

  • Lucjan Gucma
Conference paper

Abstract

The paper presents concept of probabilistic and risk based decision support model for large ships admittance to ports. Two main accident types are included into the model. The accidents due to ships exceeding horizontal boundaries of manoeuvring area such as grounding in channel and the accidents due to ship hitting the bottom because of exceeding the available water depth.

Keywords

Ship Movement Horizontal Boundary Accident Probability Accident Cost Ship Passage 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

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    Grabski F., Jazwinski J. Bayesian methods in reliability and diagnostics (in polish). WKL. Warsaw. 2001.Google Scholar
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    Gucma L., Navigation risk assessment for vessels manoeuvring in various conditions. Risk Analysis III, Wit Press Computational Mechanics Publications, Southampton-Boston, 2002.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Gucma L., The method of average navigation risk assessment with consideration of inequality of ship’s accident probability along the waterway. Risk Analysis II Bologna, Wit Press Southampton-Boston, 2000.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Sand, S.E., Nielsen, D.S., Jakobsen, V.B. Risk Analysis of Simulated Ship Approaches to Ports, Proc. of the Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses, Seville, 1994.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Savenije R.Ph. Probabilistic Admittance Policy, PIANC Bulletin No 91, Bruxelles, 1996.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lucjan Gucma
    • 1
  1. 1.Maritime University of SzczecinSzczecinPoland

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