Stochastic Prediction of Seismic Ground Motions Using Macro-Spatial Correlation Model

  • Tsuyoshi Takada
  • Tetsuo Shimomura
Conference paper


Estimating a macro-spatial correlation of seismic ground motions is very important for earthquake damage predictions, building portfolio analyses, etc. in which simultaneous damages in different locations have to be taken into consideration. In this study, the residual value between an observed and a ground motion predicted by an empirical mean attenuation equation is focused on. The residual value is now modelled assuming that it constitutes a homogeneous two-dimensional stochastic field in such a way that the joint probability density function (PDF) of seismic ground can be characterized by the spatial correlation model as well as by an empirical mean attenuation equation. Once it can be given in terms of the correlation model with the PDF, stochastic prediction of the ground motion at the locations unobserved can be effectively done with using the data observed at the near-by stations.


Ground Motion Probability Density Function Peak Ground Acceleration Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Seismic Ground Motion 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Achiwa, M., Sato, M. and Mizutani, M., Seismic Risk Assessment Procedures for a System consisting of Distributed Facilities, — Part 3 Insurance Portfolio Analysis, ICOSSAR01, 2001Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Takada, T. and Shimomura, T., Macro-Spatial Correlation of Seismic Ground Motion based on 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, J. of Building Science, AIJ, Vol. 565, 2003 (in Japanese)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Lee, W.H.K, Shin, T.C. and Kuo, K.W., Chen, K.C. and Wu, C.F., CWD Free-field Strong-Motion Data from the 921 Chi-Chi Earthquake: Processed Acceleration Files on CD-ROM, Seismology Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, 2001Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Annaka, T., Yamazaki, F. and Katahira, F., Proposal of Peak Ground Velocity and Response Spectra based on JMA 87 type accelerometer Records, Proc. of 24th Symposium of Japan Association on Earthquake Engineering, 1997 (in Japanese)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Fukushima, Y., Derivation and Revision of Acceleration Attenuation Equation Applicable for Near-Faults, No. 63, Research Report No. 63, Shimizu Institute of Technology, 1996 (in Japanese)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tsuyoshi Takada
    • 1
  • Tetsuo Shimomura
    • 1
  1. 1.Graduate School of EngineeringThe University of TokyoBunkyo-ku, TokyoJapan

Personalised recommendations