Fire Risk Requantification Study — Fire Ignition Frequencies

  • Mardy Kazarians
  • Francisco Joglar
  • Steve P. Nowlen
  • Bijan Najafi
Conference paper


Fire ignition frequency is the first quantitative measure of fire risk. Different models have been employed by the industry to estimate the frequency of fire occurrence at different locations within a plant. Earlier models provided frequencies by building type (e.g., auxiliary building and turbine building) and specific rooms (e.g., control room and cable spreading room). In the later models, fire ignition frequencies were estimated by equipment type. As fire event database expanded, a combined model was developed that combined location specific information with equipment type. In the Fire Risk Requantification Study, the latter model was further enhanced in terms of combined categories of location and equipment type and enhanced use of the information provided in event reports of the underlying database. Two-stage Bayesian approach was used to characterize the plant-to-plant variability uncertainties in the fire ignition frequencies and facilitate incorporation of plant specific information.


Fire Risk Uncertainty Distribution Fire Occurrence Ignition Source Electric Power Research Institute 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mardy Kazarians
    • 1
  • Francisco Joglar
    • 2
  • Steve P. Nowlen
    • 3
  • Bijan Najafi
    • 4
  1. 1.Kazarians & Associates, Inc.GlendaleUSA
  2. 2.SAICRestonUSA
  3. 3.Sandia National LaboratoriesAlbuquerqueUSA
  4. 4.SAICSan JoseUSA

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