On Developing a Risk Analysis Framework for Post-Industrial Age Technologies

  • William Kastenberg
  • Gloria Hauser-Kastenberg
  • David Norris
Conference paper


Risk assessment, to date, has been primarily a retrospective process. It was developed by the U.S. Space Program in the 1950’s and 60’s with the advent of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis in an attempt to both understand and correct missile and rocket launch failures. It came of age with the publication of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) in 1975, but only after approximately 75 nuclear power plants already had been designed, built and operated in the U.S. From the remediation of Superfund sites and assessing space missions to improving safety at chemical and nuclear facilities, Risk Assessment has become an important tool for managing the health and safety of the public and the environment.


Nuclear Power Plant Small World Network Electric Power Grid Emergent Quality Nuclear Energy System 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Kastenberg WE. “On Redefining the Culture of Risk Analysis,” Proceedings of PSAM-6, San Juan, Puerto Rico, June 2002.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Science, Section on Complex Systems, Volume 284, No. 5411, pp. 79 109, April 2, 1999.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Watts D and Strogatz S. “Collective Dynamics of “Small World” Networks,” Nature, 393, 440–442, 1998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Bak P. How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality, Copernicus, New York, 1996.CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Kauffman S. The Origins of Order: Self Organization and Selection in Evolution, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Carlson J. and Doyle J. “Highly Optimized Tolerance: A Mechanism for Power Laws in Designed Systems,” Physical Review E, Volume 60, No.2 August 1999.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Capra F. The Web of Life, Doubleday, New York, 1996.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Harte J, Kinzig A and Green J. “Self-Similarity in the Distribution and Abundance of Species”, Science, Volume 284, April 9, 1999.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Albert R. “Error and Attack Tolerance of Complex Networks,” Nature, 406, pp378–381, 2000.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Newman M, Girvan M and Farmer JD. “Optimal Design, Robustness, and Risk Aversion,” Santa Fe Institute Working Paper No. 0202330 v1,20 February 2002.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Title 10, U. S. Code of Federal Regulations, Part 50. Policy Statement on Advanced Reactors. U. S. N. R.C., July 8, 1986.Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    “A Roadmap to Deploy New Nuclear Power Plants in the United States by 2010, Volume I, Summary Report,” U.S. DOE, October 2001.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    “A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems,” Technical Roadmap Report, submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee Subcommittee on Generation IV Technology Planning, September 23, 2002.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • William Kastenberg
    • 1
  • Gloria Hauser-Kastenberg
    • 1
  • David Norris
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California at BerkeleyBerkeleyUSA

Personalised recommendations