A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis
Risk identification consists of defining the hazard, loss-causing event E, probability P(E) of that event, perception Pe(E,P(E)) and consequences C(Pe) of that perception. Risk identification is followed by risk management, whose purpose is to mitigate the risks, for example by reducing P(E) or C(Pe) and providing suitable risk communication to the population at risk. Since managing risk has a financial cost, that cost should be traded off with risk severity or frequency — hence a bi-objective model is naturally called for. Furthermore, several risks may exist, thus a risk-risk tradeoff constitutes a multicriterion decision (MCDA) procedure as shown in part I of this paper. These points are illustrated using hydrologic examples in part II.
KeywordsWater Resource System Risk Identification Bayesian Decision Theory Multicriteria Approach Probabilistic Safety Assessment
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