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On the use of expected values in safety management

  • Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen
  • Terje Aven
  • Jan Erik Vinnem
  • Hermann Steen Wiencke
Conference paper

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the use of statistical expected values in safety management. We show that an essential concept when dealing with safety management is uncertainty about the consequences and phenomena, how uncertainty is described, perceived, communicated and managed. As uncertainty cannot be fully described and calculated by statistical expected values, there is a need for a broad perspective on uncertainty and risk. A risk picture has to be established showing different dimensions and aspects of the risks, and this picture has to be seen in relation to the limitations of the analysis. Our starting point is the offshore oil and gas industry, but our discussion is to large extent general and could also be applied in other areas.

Keywords

Cash Flow Risk Aversion Systematic Risk Safety Management Portfolio Theory 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

  1. Abrahamsen, E. B., Aven, T., Vinnem, J.E. and Wiencke, H. (2003) Safety management and the use of expected values. Report Norwegian Research Council.Google Scholar
  2. Aven, T. (2003) Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective. Wiley, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bedford, T., and Cooke, R. (2001) Probabilistic Risk Analysis, Cambridge University Publishing Ltd, Cambridge.CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  4. Levy, H. and Sarnat, M. (1990) Capital Investment and Financial Decisions, Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
  5. Varian, H.R. (1999) Intermediate Microeconomics. A Modern Approach, Fifth edition, W.W. Norton & Company, New York.Google Scholar
  6. Vinnem, J.E. (1999) Offshore Risk Assessment. Kluwer Academic Publishers, London.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen
    • 1
  • Terje Aven
    • 1
  • Jan Erik Vinnem
    • 2
  • Hermann Steen Wiencke
    • 3
  1. 1.Stavanger University CollegeNorway
  2. 2.Preventor/Stavanger University CollegeNorway
  3. 3.Proactima/Stavanger University CollegeNorway

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