Human Reliability Data from Simulator Experiments: Principles and Context-Sensitive Analysis
Human error is often a dominant source of risk in probabilistic risk assessments. At the same time, we hear complaints of a lack of suitable data for human reliability assessment (HRA). Simulators can provide data suitable for HRA. By careful design and planning, a simulator facility can minimize objections in principle, and can maximize applicability of all of its work to HRA, PRA, and risk-informed decision-making. We describe ways to improve the applicability of simulator studies, covering their full duration from conception and design, to analysis and reporting. We also describe a qualitative method under development for reporting “contextually anchored simulator transcripts” (CAST). These transcripts are used to supplement the analysis and reporting of experimental results. The use of CAST is exemplified for a recent simulator study. The results are showing that human performance can depend strongly on qualitative contextual factors, even while planned experimental main effects are also significant, and a structured qualitative analysis of simulator trials can provide better HRA data.
KeywordsHuman Error Probabilistic Risk Assessment Simulator Facility Human Reliability Recent Simulator Study
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