Socio-Technical Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Its Capabilities and Limitations

  • Barbara G. Kanki
  • David Marx
  • Misti J. Hale
Conference paper


Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is not new to the system designer. To the operational manager, however, PRA is virtually unknown. This paper explores the emerging process of socio-technical probabilistic risk assessment (ST-PRA) that is being used by operational managers to identify and mitigate operational risks within complex socio-technical systems such as aerospace and healthcare. What are the strengths of modeling socio-technical risks using fault trees, and what are the limitations of fault trees and the probability estimates inherent in probabilistic risk assessment?


Human Error Space Shuttle Fault Tree Probabilistic Risk Assessment Inspection Task 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Barbara G. Kanki
    • 1
  • David Marx
    • 2
  • Misti J. Hale
    • 2
  1. 1.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research CenterMoffett FieldUSA
  2. 2.Outcome Engineering, LLC.FriscoUSA

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