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Predictive Distributions for Detecting Departures from an Uncertain Baseline

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Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
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Abstract

A predictive distribution is useful for monitoring departures from baseline performance. Several possible definitions of predictive distribution are presented and compared. The Bayesian definition using the Jeffreys non informative prior is recommended as a compromise among the competing definitions.

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© 2004 Springer-Verlag London

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Atwood, C.L. (2004). Predictive Distributions for Detecting Departures from an Uncertain Baseline. In: Spitzer, C., Schmocker, U., Dang, V.N. (eds) Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_170

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_170

  • Publisher Name: Springer, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-1057-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-85729-410-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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