Predictive Distributions for Detecting Departures from an Uncertain Baseline

  • Corwin L. Atwood
Conference paper


A predictive distribution is useful for monitoring departures from baseline performance. Several possible definitions of predictive distribution are presented and compared. The Bayesian definition using the Jeffreys non informative prior is recommended as a compromise among the competing definitions.


Negative Binomial Distribution Predictive Distribution Future Data Past Data Homogeneous Poisson Process 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Corwin L. Atwood
    • 1
  1. 1.Statwood ConsultingSilver SpringUSA

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