A Decision Analysis Based Methodology for the Assessment of the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems.

  • Ioannis A. Papazoglou
  • Robert A. Bari
Conference paper


A methodology for the assessment of the differential resistance of various nuclear power systems to misuse for the production of nuclear weapons is developed. The methodology is based on the principles of Multiattribute Decision Analysis and it is set as a “double decision analysis paradigm” where one decision is made by the international community in adopting a specific nuclear power system, and a second decision is made by a proliferator in choosing one of many possible “pathways” that lead to the acquisition of a nuclear weapon capability. A set of indices or attributes characterizing the proliferation resistance of specific pathways is defined and evaluated for particular nuclear systems.


Nuclear Weapon Expert Judgment Consequence Space Aspiration Level Decision Space 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Denning R., Bari R., J. Eagle. Mladineo S., Olinger C., Rochau G., Roglans J., Schock R., “Guidelines for the performance of Nonproliferation Assessments” U. S. National Nuclear Security Administration, PNNL-14294, May 2003.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    US Department of Energy (2000) Technical Opportunities to Increase the Proliferation Resistance of Global Civilian Nuclear Power Systems, Washington DC Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Papazoglou I.A., Gyftopoulos E., Miller M., Raiffa H., Rasmussen N., “A Methodology for the Assessment of the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems” (1978) MIT Report MIT-EL 78-021 Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Kenney R.L., Raiffa H., “Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs” John Wiley & Sons, 1976Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Wyss G.D., Blair D.s., Rexroth P.E., Rochau G.e., Sype T.T., “Using Risk as a Basis for Nuclear Proliferation Decisions” PSAM 6 Proceedings Vol II p1295–1300 (2002)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ioannis A. Papazoglou
    • 1
  • Robert A. Bari
    • 2
  1. 1.National Center for Scientific Research “DEMOKRITOS”AthensGreece
  2. 2.Brookhaven National LaboratoryUptonUSA

Personalised recommendations