A Decision Analysis Based Methodology for the Assessment of the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems.
A methodology for the assessment of the differential resistance of various nuclear power systems to misuse for the production of nuclear weapons is developed. The methodology is based on the principles of Multiattribute Decision Analysis and it is set as a “double decision analysis paradigm” where one decision is made by the international community in adopting a specific nuclear power system, and a second decision is made by a proliferator in choosing one of many possible “pathways” that lead to the acquisition of a nuclear weapon capability. A set of indices or attributes characterizing the proliferation resistance of specific pathways is defined and evaluated for particular nuclear systems.
KeywordsNuclear Weapon Expert Judgment Consequence Space Aspiration Level Decision Space
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