Percolation and epidemics (1957)
In 1957 Hammersley and Broadbent considered the propagation of a “fluid” in an infinite regular square network, where two neighbouring nodes are connected with a given probability. Among the possible examples, they mentioned the propagation of an epidemic in an orchard. They showed that there is critical probability below which no large epidemic can occur and above which large epidemics occur with a positive probability. Their article was the starting point of percolation theory.
KeywordsMonte Carlo Method Percolation Theory Royal Statistical Society Infected Tree Critical Probability
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