Decision Conferencing A Unique Approach to the Behavioral Aggregation of Expert Judgment

  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
  • John Rohrbaugh


Judgment is an inferential cognitive process by which an individual draws conclusions about unknown quantities or qualities on the basis of available information. The flaws in an individual’s cognitive process leading to inaccurate judgment have been explored widely (Hammond, Stewart, Brehmer, & Steinmann, 1986; Hogarth, 1987; Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky, 1982; Simon, 1945, Simon, 1960). The earliest research on group judgment led to some confidence that the mathematical aggregation of judgments from several individuals (collected as a “statistized,” “nominal,” or “noninteracting” group) usually would be better than the accuracy expected by randomly selecting a single individual from the population of all prospective group members (Bruce, 1935; Gordon, 1924; Knight, 1921).


Moderate Bias Individual Estimate Cognitive Conflict Individual Judgment Nominal Group Technique 
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Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
    • 1
  • John Rohrbaugh
    • 2
  1. 1.University Center for Policy ResearchState University of New York at AlbanyAlbany
  2. 2.Graduate School of Public AffairsState University of New York at AlbanyAlbany

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