Advertisement

Decision Conferencing A Unique Approach to the Behavioral Aggregation of Expert Judgment

  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
  • John Rohrbaugh

Abstract

Judgment is an inferential cognitive process by which an individual draws conclusions about unknown quantities or qualities on the basis of available information. The flaws in an individual’s cognitive process leading to inaccurate judgment have been explored widely (Hammond, Stewart, Brehmer, & Steinmann, 1986; Hogarth, 1987; Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky, 1982; Simon, 1945, Simon, 1960). The earliest research on group judgment led to some confidence that the mathematical aggregation of judgments from several individuals (collected as a “statistized,” “nominal,” or “noninteracting” group) usually would be better than the accuracy expected by randomly selecting a single individual from the population of all prospective group members (Bruce, 1935; Gordon, 1924; Knight, 1921).

Keywords

Moderate Bias Individual Estimate Cognitive Conflict Individual Judgment Nominal Group Technique 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bruce, R. S. (1935). Group judgments in the fields of lifted weights and visual discrimination. The Journal of Psychology, 1, 117–121.Google Scholar
  2. Burleson, B. R., Levine, B. J., & Samter, W. (1984). Decision-making procedure and decision quality. Human Communication Research, 10, 557–574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Diehl, M., & Stroebe, W. (1987). Productivity loss in brainstorming groups: Toward the solution of a riddle. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 497–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Eils, L. C., & John, R. S. (1980). A criterion validation of multiattribute utility analysis and of group communication strategy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 268–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Einhorn, H. J., Hogarth, R. M., & Klempner, E. (1977). Quality of group judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 84, 158–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Ferrell, W. R. (1985). Combining individual judgments. In G. Wright (Ed.), Behavioral decision making. New York: Plenum.Google Scholar
  7. Fischer, G. W. (1981). When oracles fail—A comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 28, 96–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Flores, B. E., & White, E. M. (1989). Subjective versus objective combining of forecasts: An experiment. Journal of Forecasting, 8, 331–341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Gordon, K. (1924). Group judgments in the field of lifted weights. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 7, 398–400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gustafson, D. H., Shukla, R. M., Delbecq, A. L., & Walster, G. W. (1973). A comparative study of differences in subjective estimation made by individuals, interacting groups, delphi groups and nominal groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 280–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hall, E. J., Mouton, J. S., & Blake, R. R. (1963). Group problem solving effectiveness under conditions of pooling vs. interaction. The Journal of Social Psychology, 59, 147–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hall, J., & Watson, W. H. (1971). The effects of a normative intervention on group decision-making performance. Human Relations, 23, 299–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hall, J., & Williams, M. S. (1970). Group dynamics training and improved decision making. The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 6, 39–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hammond, K. R., Stewart, T. R., Brehmer, B., & Steinmann, D. O. (1986). Social judgment theory. In H. R. Arkes & K. R. Hammond (Eds.), Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader. London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  15. Harmon, J., & Rohrbaugh, J. (1990). Social judgment analysis and small group decision making: Cognitive feedback effects on individual and collective performance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 34–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Herbert, T. T., & Yost, E. B. (1979). A comparison of decision quality under nominal interacting consensus group formats: The case of the structured problem. Decision Sciences, 10, 358–367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hogarth, R. M. (1987). Judgment and choice. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  18. Holloman, C. R., & Hendrick, H. W. (1972). Adequacy of group decisions as a function of the decision-making process. Academy of Management Journal, 8, 175–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Holloman, C. R., & Hendrick, H. W. (1971). Problem solving in different sized groups. Personnel Psychology, 24, 489–500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  21. Kelley, T. L. (1925). The applicability of the Spearman-Brown formula for the measurement of reliability. Journal of Educational Psychology, 16, 300–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Knight, H. C. (1921). A comparison of the reliability of group and individual judgments. Unpublished master’s thesis, Columbia University.Google Scholar
  23. Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (1975). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
  24. McCartt, A. T., & Rohrbaugh, J. (1989). Evaluating group decision support system effectiveness: A performance study of decision conferencing. Decision Support Systems, 5, 243–253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. McGrath, J. E. (1984). Groups: Interaction and performance. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  26. Milter, R. G., & Rohrbaugh, J. (1988). Judgment analysis and decision conferencing for administrative review: A case study of innovative policy making in government. In R. L. Cardy, S. M. Puffer, & J. M. Newman (Eds.), Advances in information processing in organizations (Vol. 3). Greenwich, Ct.: JAI Press.Google Scholar
  27. Miner, F. C. (1984). Group versus individual decision making: An investigation of performance measures, decision strategies, and process losses/gains. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 33, 112–124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Nemiroff, P. M., & King, D. C. (1975). Group decision-making performance as influenced by consensus and self-orientation. Human Relations, 28, 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Nemiroff, P. M., Pasmore, W. A., & Ford, D. L. (1976). The effects of two normative structural interventions on establishes and ad hoc groups: Implications for improving decision making effectiveness. Decision Sciences, 7, 841–855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Phillips, L. D. (1988a). Requisite decision modeling for technological projects. In C. Vlek & G. Cvetkovitch (Eds.), Social decision methodology for technological projects. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
  31. Phillips, L. D. (1988b). People-centered group decision support. In G. Doukidis, F. Land, & G. Miller (Eds.), Knowledge based management support systems. Chichester: Harwood.Google Scholar
  32. Preston, M. G. (1938). Note on the reliability and validity of the group judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 22, 462–471.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1991). Improving the accuracy of forecasts: A process intervention combining social judgment analysis and group facilitation. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. The University at Albany, State University of New York.Google Scholar
  34. Rohrbaugh, J. (1988). Cognitive conflict tasks and small group processes. In B. Brehmer & C. R. B. Joyce (Eds.), Human judgment: The SJT approach. Amsterdam: North-Holland Elsevier.Google Scholar
  35. Rohrbaugh, J. (1981). Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Nominal Group Technique. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 28, 272–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Rohrbaugh, J. (1979). Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 24, 73–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Simon, H. A. (1945). Administrative behavior. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  38. Simon, H. A. (1980). The new science of management decision. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
  39. Smith, B. B. (1941). The validity and reliability of group judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 29, 420–434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sniezek, J. A. (1990). A comparison of techniques for judgmental forecasting by groups with common information. Group and Organizational Studies, 15, 5–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sniezek, J. A., & Henry, R. A. (1989). Accuracy and confidence in group judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 1–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Steiner, I. D. (1972). Group processes and productivity. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  43. Stewart, T. R. (1987). The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting. Climatic Change, 11, 97–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Stroop, J. R. (1932). Is the judgment of the group better than that of the average member of the group? Journal of Experimental Psychology, 15, 550–562.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Thorndike, R. L. (1938). On what type of tasks will a group do well? Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33, 409–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Timmons, W. M. (1942). Can the product superiority of discussors be attributed to averaging or majority influences? Journal of Social Psychology, 15, 23–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Uecker, W. C. (1982). The quality of group performance in simplified information evaluation. Journal of Accounting Research, 20, 388–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Yetton, P. W., & Bottger, P. C. (1982). Individual versus group problem solving: An empirical test of a best-member strategy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 29, 307–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione
    • 1
  • John Rohrbaugh
    • 2
  1. 1.University Center for Policy ResearchState University of New York at AlbanyAlbany
  2. 2.Graduate School of Public AffairsState University of New York at AlbanyAlbany

Personalised recommendations