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Synthesis of Expert Judgment and Statistical Forecasting Models for Decision Support

  • Derek Bunn

Abstract

One of the characteristic features of decision-support systems that Keen and Scott-Morton (1978) envisioned was an interaction between computer-based models and the expert judgment of the managers who would use them. This objective had been motivated by the apparent lack of success at the everyday managerial level that twenty-five years or so of operations research and management science model building had achieved. The OR and MS tradition had been a scientific one with a reliance upon a comprehensive problem representation and mathematical techniques of solution. As such, a large part of the work remained in the domain of specialists, did not facilitate interaction with the expert judgment of managers, and was not as widely adopted as their designers had expected. Keen and Scott-Morton emphasized the use of simpler models, more intuitive to managers and an interactive style of usage. What the DSS models lacked in comprehensive problem representation was more than compensated for by the ease with which they could be run under alternative assumptions. The popularity of PCs at the managerial level and the development of friendly, generic software over the following decade greatly facilitated these ideas.

Keywords

Analytical Hierarchy Process Expert Judgment Earning Forecast Consumer Expenditure Statistical Forecast 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Derek Bunn
    • 1
  1. 1.London Business SchoolLondonEngland

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