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Synthesis of Expert Judgment and Statistical Forecasting Models for Decision Support

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Expertise and Decision Support

Abstract

One of the characteristic features of decision-support systems that Keen and Scott-Morton (1978) envisioned was an interaction between computer-based models and the expert judgment of the managers who would use them. This objective had been motivated by the apparent lack of success at the everyday managerial level that twenty-five years or so of operations research and management science model building had achieved. The OR and MS tradition had been a scientific one with a reliance upon a comprehensive problem representation and mathematical techniques of solution. As such, a large part of the work remained in the domain of specialists, did not facilitate interaction with the expert judgment of managers, and was not as widely adopted as their designers had expected. Keen and Scott-Morton emphasized the use of simpler models, more intuitive to managers and an interactive style of usage. What the DSS models lacked in comprehensive problem representation was more than compensated for by the ease with which they could be run under alternative assumptions. The popularity of PCs at the managerial level and the development of friendly, generic software over the following decade greatly facilitated these ideas.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4SA, England

    Derek Bunn

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  1. Derek Bunn
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Strathclyde Glasgow, Scotland

    George Wright

  2. University College London London, England

    Fergus Bolger

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© 1992 Plenum Press, New York

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Bunn, D. (1992). Synthesis of Expert Judgment and Statistical Forecasting Models for Decision Support. In: Wright, G., Bolger, F. (eds) Expertise and Decision Support. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_12

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_12

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-306-43862-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-585-34290-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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