Some Caveats for the Use of Forecating Models for Assessing Rates of Return in Workers’ Compensation

  • A. S. Paulson
  • R. L. Boylan
  • L. T. Lim
Part of the Huebner International Series on Risk, Insurance and Economic Security book series (HSRI, volume 16)


A model, in the most general sense, is a simplified representation of reality, as it is, or as it is to come to be. The reality of interest may be a phenomenon, a system, a process, a living thing, that is, virtually anything. The simplification embodied in the representation may range from slight to extensive, from simple to highly sophisticated. All models are incorrect in some way; some models are useful; all, even good and correct models, are capable of being used in an inappropriate way. Complex economic models that have not been appropriately validated, preferably in at least two ways, are particularly dangerous.


Cash Flow Compensation Insurance Accounting Information System Average IRRs Compensation Line 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Abramowitz, M. and I. Stegun. (1964). Handbook of Mathematical Functions, Tables and Graphs. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
  2. Box, G.E.P. and G. Jenkins. (1984). Times Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco CA: Holden Day.Google Scholar
  3. Cummins, J.D. and J.F. Outreville. (1987). “An International Analysis of Underwriting Cycles in Property-liability Insurance.” The Journal of Risk and Insurance: 246–262.Google Scholar
  4. Doherty, N.A. and J.R. Garven. (1986). “Price Regulation in Property-liability Insurance: A contingent Claims Approach. The Journal of Finance: 1011–1030.Google Scholar
  5. Draper, N. and H. Smith. (1985). Applied Regression Analysis. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  6. Ibbotson, R. and R. Sinquefield. (1982). Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: The Past, and the Future. Charlottesville: Financial Analysis Research Foundation.Google Scholar
  7. Paulson, A.S. and R.V.S. Dixit. (1988). “Cash Flow Simulation Models for Premium and Surplus Analysis.” In J.D. Cummins and R.A. Derrig (eds.) Financial Models of Insurance Solvency. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
  8. Paulson, A.S. and R.V.S. Dixit. (1988). “Some General Approaches to Computing Total Loss Distributions and the Probability of Ruin. In J.D. Cummins and R.A. Derrig (eds.), Financial Models of Insurance Solvency. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
  9. Pentikainen, T. and J. Rantala. (1982). Solvency of Insurers and Equalization Reserves, (Vol. I and II). Helsinki: Insurance Publishing Company.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. S. Paulson
  • R. L. Boylan
  • L. T. Lim

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations