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Forecasting and Assessing the Large-Scale and Long-Term Impacts of Global Environmental Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United States and China

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Book cover Real World Ecology

Abstract

The Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems have experienced a complex set of global changes, occurring on large spatial-temporal scales and interactively affecting individual organisms and ecological systems, most of which are not amenable to direct experimentation. To understand, predict, and assess the large-scale and long-term impacts of global changes on the Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems, we need such a new approach for extrapolating the growth of plants, animals, or ecosystems into the future when climate, CO2, and other factors may be different, and extrapolating individual plant or site studies onto a regional or global scale. In this chapter, we present such a newly developed approach called the Regional Integration System for Earth’s ecosystem (RISE), which builds upon improved knowledge of the fundamental mechanisms of ecological systems, and supported by rapidly developing technology from high-speed computer systems to high-resolution remote sensing sources with global coverage. Then we apply the RISE to address our common understanding of perhaps the most important issue facing humankind in the twenty-first century, our disruption of the global carbon cycle. We use two case studies to illustrate the overall merits and applications of the RISE in terrestrial ecosystem research. In the first case study, the RISE has been used to predict and assess the impacts of global change on net primary productivity and ecosystem carbon storage in southeastern U.S. under current climatic conditions and future climate scenarios. In the second case study, we have used the RISE to assess changes in ecosystem carbon storage and fluxes induced by multiple environmental stresses including climate variability/change, land-use and land-cover change, elevated carbon dioxide, and air pollution in China.

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Abbreviations

AVHRR:

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

CLC:

Scenario combined Climate, Land Use, and CO2 effects

CLM:

Climate Change only

DGVM:

Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

DLEM:

Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model

ETM:

Enhanced Thematic Mapper

fPAR:

Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation

GCM:

General Circulation Model

GEOMOD:

Geographical Modeling

GIS:

Geographic Information System

GISS:

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

GPP:

Gross Primary Production

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LAI:

Leaf Area Index

LUCC:

Land Use Cover and Change

LULC:

Land Use and/or Land Cover

MATCH:

Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry

MIT IGSM:

Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Integrated Global System Model

MODIS:

Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NARR:

North American Regional Reanalysis

NCE:

Net Carbon Exchange

NCEP:

National Center for Environmental Prediction

NEP:

Net Ecosystem Production

NPP:

Net Primary Production

NOAH:

NCEP, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Lab

OCLC:

Scenario combined O3, Climate, Land Use, and CO2 effects

PFT:

Plant Functional Type

RCM:

Regional Climate Model

RegEM:

Regional Ecosystem Model

RISE:

Regional Integration System for Earth’s ecosystem

SEUS:

Southeastern U.S.

SOC:

Soil Organic Carbon

TEM:

Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

TOTEC:

Total Terrestrial Carbon Storage

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Acknowledgment

This research has been supported by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C), NASA Land Use and Land Cover change Program, DOE NICCR Program, US EPA 2004-STAR-L1 (RD-83227601) and AAES Program. We thank Drs. Yuhang Wang, Tao Zeng, and L. Ruby Leung for providing the regional climate data of the southeastern U.S., Dr. Felzer for providing the troposheric ozone data set for China, and Drs. Martha K. Nungesser and ShiLi Miao for providing valuable comments.

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  1. Ecosystem Science and Regional Analysis Laboratory, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, AL 36849, USA

    Hanqin Tian

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  1. Hanqin Tian
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  2. Xiaofeng Xu
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  3. Chi Zhang
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Correspondence to Hanqin Tian .

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    ShiLi Miao Dr  & Martha Nungesser Dr  & 

  2. Hawai’i Pacific University, Kaneohe, HI, USA

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Tian, H. et al. (2009). Forecasting and Assessing the Large-Scale and Long-Term Impacts of Global Environmental Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United States and China. In: Miao, S., Carstenn, S., Nungesser, M. (eds) Real World Ecology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77942-3_9

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