An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations

Abstract

In modern theater military operations, increasing attention is being directed to the coordination of military operations with ongoing social and economic redevelopment and the reformation of a viable political process. Recent experiences in Somalia, Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq have resulted in the formulation by the US Army of a specific doctrine, known as DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) to coordinate all aspects of operations. A key technical requirement for DIME is the evolution of models of population belief and behavioral responses to planned tactical operations. In this paper, we describe an approach to modeling the responses of population groups to overt manipulations over time periods of days to weeks. The model is derived from extensive past successful work by the authors in using computational cognitive models to reason about the beliefs, desires and intentions of individuals and groups.