An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations

  • Norman D. Geddes
  • Michele L. Atkinson
Conference paper


In modern theater military operations, increasing attention is being directed to the coordination of military operations with ongoing social and economic redevelopment and the reformation of a viable political process. Recent experiences in Somalia, Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq have resulted in the formulation by the US Army of a specific doctrine, known as DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) to coordinate all aspects of operations. A key technical requirement for DIME is the evolution of models of population belief and behavioral responses to planned tactical operations. In this paper, we describe an approach to modeling the responses of population groups to overt manipulations over time periods of days to weeks. The model is derived from extensive past successful work by the authors in using computational cognitive models to reason about the beliefs, desires and intentions of individuals and groups.


Cognitive Model Conflict Situation Concept Graph Group Belief Stable Evolutionary State 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Alford, C.F.. (1994) Group Processes and Political Theory.Yale University Press, New Haven.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Atkinson, M. (2003) Contract nets for control of distributed agents in unmanned air vehicles. In Proceedings of the 2 nd AIAA “Unmanned Unlimited” Conference, San Diego, CA.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Atkinson, M. (2004) Results analysis of using free market auctions to distribute control of unmanned air vehicles. In Proceedings of the 3 rd AIAA “Unmanned Unlimited” Conference. Chicago. IL.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Axelrod, R. (1997) The Complexity of Cooperation. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Brown, R. (2001) Group Processes: Dynamics With and Between Groups. 2nd Ed. Blackwell Publishing, London.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Carbonell, J. (1978) Politics: Automated ideological reasoning, Cognitive Science, 2/1: 27-51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Carbonell, J. (1979) The counterplanning process: a model of decision making in adverse conditions. Research Report, Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Cederman, Lars-Erik (1997) Emergent Actors in World Politics: How states and nations develop and dissolve.Princeton University Press, New Jersey.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Geddes, N.D. (1989) Understanding human operators’ intentions in complex systems. Ph.D. Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Geddes, N.D. (1994) A model for intent interpretation for multiple agents with conflicts. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-94. San Antonio, TX.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Geddes, N.D. (1997) Large scale models of cooperative and hostile intentions, in Proceedings of IEEE Computer Society International Conference and Workshop on Engineering of Computer Based Systems(ECBS’97), Monterey, CA.Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Geddes, N.D. and Lizza, C.S. (1999) Shared plans and situations as a basis for collaborative decision making in air operations. SAE World Aeronautics Conference, Irving CA. SAE Paper 1999- 5538.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Geddes, N.D. and Lizza, C.S. (2001) Practical Applications of a Real Time, Dynamic Model of Intentions. AAAI Fall Symposium, Cape Cod MA.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Hogg, M. (2000) Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology: Group Processes. Blackwell Publishing, London.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Norman D. Geddes
    • 1
  • Michele L. Atkinson
    • 1
  1. 1.Applied Systems Intelligence Inc.Alpharetta

Personalised recommendations