Statistical Models of Life Events and Criminal Behavior

  • D. Wayne Osgood


The goal of developmental and life course criminology is to understand patterns of crime and delinquency over the life course. To date, research in this field has devoted a great deal of attention to describing patterns of change in the dependent variable over different ages, often in the form of trajectories or growth curves of offending in relation to age (LeBlanc and Loeber 1998; Piquero et al. 2007). Closely tied to such studies is a sizable body of research investigating potential predictors of differences in trajectories (e.g., Nagin et al. 1995; Nagin and Tremblay 1999, 2005).


Causal Interpretation Offense Rate Parental Supervision Generalize Strain Theory Social Control Theory 


  1. Agnew R (1992) Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology 30:47–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Agresti A (2007) An introduction to categorical data analysis, 2nd edn. Hoboken, NJ, WileyCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Akers RL (1977) Deviant behavior: a social learning perspective. Belmont, CA, WadsworthGoogle Scholar
  4. Allison PD (1990) Change scores as dependent variables in regression analysis. Sociol Methodol 20:93–114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Allison PD (2005) Fixed effects regression methods for longitudinal data using SAS. SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NCGoogle Scholar
  6. Bryk A, Raudenbush SW (1987) Application of hierarchical linear models to assessing change. Psychol Bull 101:147–158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bryk A, Weisberg H (1977) Use of the nonequivalent control group design when subjects are growing. Psychol Bull 84:950–962CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bushway S, Brame R, Paternoster R (1999) Assessing stability and change in criminal offending: a comparison of random effects, semiparametric, and fixed effects. J Quant Criminol 15:23–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Campbell DT, Stanley JC (1966) Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for research. Chicago, Rand McNallyGoogle Scholar
  10. Curran PJ, Bollen KA (2001) The best of both worlds: combining autoregressive and latent curve models. In: Collins LM, Sayer AG (eds) New methods for the analysis of change. American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, pp 105–135Google Scholar
  11. Esbensen F-A, Wayne Osgood D, Taylor TJ, Peterson D, Freng A (2001) How great is G.R.E.A.T.?: results from a longitudinal quasi-experimental design. Criminol Public Policy 1:87–115CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Felson M (2002) Crime and everyday life: insights and implications for society, 3rd edn. Pine Forge Press, Thousand Oaks, CAGoogle Scholar
  13. Greene WH (2000) Econometric analysis. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJGoogle Scholar
  14. Halaby CN (2003) Panel models for the analysis of change and growth in life course studies. In: Mortimer JT, Shanahan MJ (eds) Handbook of the life course. Kluwer, New York, pp 503–527CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Haviland A, Nagin DS, Rosenbaum PR (2007) Combining propensity score matching and group-based trajectory analysis in an observational study. Psychol Methods 12:247–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hay C, Forrest W (2006) The development of self-control: examining self-control theory’s stability thesis. Criminology 44:739–774CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hirschi T (1969) Causes of delinquency. University of California Press, Berkeley, CAGoogle Scholar
  18. Hirschi T, Gottfredson M (1983) Age and the explanation of crime. Am J Sociol 89:552–584CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hirschi T, Gottfredson M (1985) All wise after the fact learning theory, again: reply to baldwin. Am J Sociol 90: 1330–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Horney J, Osgood DW, Marshall IH (1995) Criminal careers in the short-term: intra-individual variability in crime and its relation to local life circumstances. Am Sociol Rev 60:655–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Jacobs JE, Lanza S, Osgood DW, Eccles JS, Wigfield A (2002) Changes in children’s self-competence and values: gender and domain differences across grades one through twelve. Child Dev 73:509–527CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jang SJ (1999) Age-varying effects of family, school, and peers on delinquency: a multilevel modeling test of interactional theory. Criminology 37:643–685CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Johnson DR (1995) Alternative methods for the quantitative analysis of panel data in family research: pooled time-series methods. J Marriage Fam 57:1065–1077CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. King RD, Massoglia M, MacMillan R (2007) The context of marriage and crime: gender, the propensity to marry, and offending in early adulthood. Criminology 45:33–65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Laub JH, Nagin DS, Sampson RJ (1998) Trajectories of change in criminal offending: good marriages and the desistance process. Am Sociol Rev 63:225–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Laub JH, Sampson RJ (2003) Shared beginnings, divergent lives: delinquent boys to age 70. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MAGoogle Scholar
  27. LeBlanc M, Loeber R (1998) Developmental criminology updated. In: Crime and justice: a review of research, vol 23. pp 115–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Liberman AM (ed) (2007) The long view of crime: a synthesis of longitudinal research. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  29. Long JS (1997) Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CAGoogle Scholar
  30. McClendon MJ (1995) Multiple regression and causal analysis.Peacock Publishers, Itasca, ILGoogle Scholar
  31. Moffitt TE (1993) Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: a developmental taxonomy. Psychol Rev 100:674–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Nagin DS, Farrington DP, Moffitt TE (1995) Life-course trajectories of different types of offenders. Criminology 33:111–139CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Nagin DS, Tremblay RE (1999) Trajectories of boys’ physical aggression, opposition, and hyperactivity on the path to physically violent and non-violent juvenile delinquency. Child Dev 70:1181–1196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Nagin DS, Tremblay RE (2005) What has been learned from group-based trajectory modeling? examples from physical aggression and other problem behaviors. Ann Am Acad Pol Soc Sci 602:82–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Osgood DW (2005) Sense of crime and the life course. Ann Am Acad Pol Soc Sci 602:196–211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Osgood DW, Rowe DC (1994) Bridging criminal careers, theory, and policy through latent variable models of individual offending. Criminology 32:517–554CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Osgood DW, Smith G (1995) Applying hierarchical linear modeling to extended longitudinal evaluations: the boys town follow-up study. Eval Rev 19:3–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Osgood DW, Wilson JK, Bachman JG, O’Malley PM, Johnston LD (1996) Routine activities and individual deviant behavior. Am Sociol Rev 61:635–655CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ousey GC, Wilcox P (2007) The interaction of antisocial propensity and life-course varying predictors of delinquent behavior: differences by method of estimation and implications for theory. Criminology 45:313–354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Paternoster R, Bushway S, Brame R, Apel R (2003) The effect of teenage employment on delinquency and problem behaviors. Soc Forces 82:297–335CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Peterson Trond (1993) Recent advances in longitudinal methodology. Annu Rev Sociol 19:425–454CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Piquero AR, Farrington DP, Blumstein A (2007) Key issues in criminal career research: new analyses of the cambridge study in delinquent development. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Raudenbush SW (2001a) Comparing personal trajectories and drawing causal inferences from longitudinal data. Annu Rev Psychol 52:501–525CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Raudenbush SW (2001b) Toward a coherent framework for comparing trajectories of individual change. In: Collins LM, Sayer AG (eds) New methods for the analysis of change,American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, pp 33–64Google Scholar
  45. Raudenbush SW, Bryk AS (2002) Hierarchical linear models, 2nd edn. Sage, Newbury Park, CAGoogle Scholar
  46. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB (1983) The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Rovine MJ, Molenaar PCM (2001) A structural equations modeling approach to the general linear mixed model. In: Collins LM, Sayer AG (eds) New methods for the analysis of change, American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, pp 65–96Google Scholar
  48. Sampson RJ, Laub JH (1993) Crime in the making: pathways and turning points through life. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MAGoogle Scholar
  49. Sampson RJ, Laub JH, Wimer C (2006) Does marriage reduce crime? A counterfactual approach to within-individual causal effects. Criminology 44:465–508CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Siennick SE, Osgood DW (2007) A review of research on the impact on crime of transitions to adult roles. In: Liberman AM (ed) The long view of crime: a synthesis of longitudinal research, Springer, New York, pp 161–190Google Scholar
  51. Singer JD, Willett JB (2003) Applied longitudinal data analysis. Oxford University Press, New YorkCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Slocum LA, Simpson SS, Smith DA (2005) Strained lives and crime: examining intra-individual variation in strain and offending in a sample of incarcerated women. Criminology 43:1067–1110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Snijders TAB, Bosker R (1999) Multilevel analysis: an introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modeling. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CAGoogle Scholar
  54. Sutherland EH, Cressey DR (1955) Principles of criminology, 5th edn. J. B. Lippincott, PhiladelphiaGoogle Scholar
  55. Thornberry TP (1987) Toward an interactional theory of delinquency. Criminology 25:863–891CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Thornberry TP, Krohn MD (2005) Applying interactional theory to the explanation of continuity and change in antisocial behavior. In: Farrington DP (ed) Integrated developmental and life course theories of offending. Advances in criminological theory, vol 14. Transaction, Piscataway, NJ, pp 183–210Google Scholar
  57. Uggen C (2000) Work as a turning point in the life course of criminals: a duration model of age, employment, and recidivism. Am Sociol Rev 67:529–546CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Warr M (1993) Age, peers, and delinquency. Criminology 31:17–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Winship C, Morgan SL (1999) The estimation of causal effects from observational data. Annu Rev Sociol 25:659–707CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Wright BRE, Caspi A, Moffitt TE, Silva PA (2001) The effects of social ties on crime vary by criminal propensity: a life-course model of interdependence. Criminology 39:321–348CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. Wayne Osgood
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of SociologyPennsylvania State UniversityState CollegeUSA

Personalised recommendations