Quantifying Fossil Fuel CO2 over Europe
Europe is responsible for more than 25% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions (Marland et al. 2006), and these emissions account for about 30–50% of the observed CO2 variability in this region (see Sect. 4.2.1). To balance greenhouse gases over Europe, therefore, also requires quantification of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel (i.e. coal, oil and natural gas) burning. Reliable continuous observations of the fossil fuel CO2 component are needed in order to validate emission-based model simulations and finally allow for robust estimates of the biogenic part in the observed atmospheric CO2 variations. Fossil fuel emissions in Europe are very heterogeneously distributed in space with hot spots in highly industrialised and populated regions. The temporal variability comprises seasonal as well as diurnal cycles with a strong coupling to ambient temperature variations (i.e. domestic heating), the current economic situation (i.e. industry) and other factors such as the general meteorological conditions or holiday periods (i.e. traffic and industry). All these parameters need to be accurately modelled if fossil fuel emissions shall be estimated in a realistic and quantitative way from bottom-up information on the respective sources (see Reis et al. 2008).
The aim of this chapter is to review the state of the art of quantifying fossil fuel CO2 over Europe. We will first provide an estimate of the relative signal of fossil fuel emissions over Europe using emissions inventories and atmospheric transport modelling and compare them to the respective signals from biogenic (and oceanic) sources and sinks. Then we will give an overview on the existing 14CO2 measurements and respective 14C-based fossil fuel CO2 estimates, including their seasonal variability and temporal trends. We will further discuss the quality of the surrogate tracer CO, and finally present a sensitivity test of a proposed method, which allows to estimate the uncertainty of using continuous CO measurements together with 14C-calibrated CO/CO2(foss) ratios to estimate fossil fuel CO2 at high temporal resolution (Levin and Karstens 2007). Finally, we will make a recommendation for a fossil fuel CO2 monitoring network for the European continent.
KeywordsFossil Fuel Emission Inventory Relative Root Mean Square Error Terrestrial Biosphere Fossil Fuel Emission
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