During the last 30 years about 300 papers on Vote and Popularity functions (VP-functions) (defined in Table 29.1) have been written.2 Most of the research is empirical. The purpose of this article is to survey this literature and discuss how the empirical results fit into economic theory.
From bedrock theory follows a remarkable amount of nice, sound theory, and everything can be generalized into the general equilibrium, growing along a steadystate path maximizing consumption. Politics convert the demand for public good into the optimal production of such goods and minimizing economic fluctuations. The past is relevant only as it allows the agents to predict the future, markets are efficient, etc. This nice theory is well known, and it is a wonderful frame of reference. Especially in the 1980s, a strong movement in economics argued that the world was really much closer to the bedrock than hitherto believed. If the noise terms are carefully formulated, the world is loglinear and everybody maximizes from now to infinity.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Aidt, T. (2000). “Economic voting and information.” Electoral Studies, 19, 349-362.
Bloom, H.S. and Price, H.D. (1975). “The effects of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections.” American Political Science Review, 69, 1232-1269.
Dorussen, H. and Taylor, M. (eds.) (2002). Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
Erikson, R.S., MacKuen, M.B., and Stimson, J.A. (2000). “Bankers or peasants revisited: economic expectations and presidential approval.” Electoral Studies, 19, 295-312.
Frey, B. (1996). Political Business Cycles. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
Frey, B.S. and Schneider, F. (1978a). “An empirical study of politico-economic interaction in the US.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 174-183.
Frey, B.S. and Schneider, F. (1978b). “A politico-economic model of the United Kingdom.” Economic Journal, 88, 243-253.
Gärtner, M. (1994). “Democracy, elections, and macroeconomic policy: two decades of progress.” European Journal of Political Economy, 10, 85-110.
Goodhart, C.A.E. and Bhansali, R.J. (1970). “Political economy.” Political Studies, 18, 43-106.
Hibbs, D.A., Jr. (1982). “On the demand for economic outcomes: macroeconomic outcomes and mass political support in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.” Journal of Politics, 44,426-462.
Johansen, L. (1978, 1979). Lectures on Macroeconomic Planning, 2 vols. Amsterdam: NorthHolland.
Johrdahl, H. (2001). An economic analysis of voting in Sweden. Paper for the EPCS, Econ Department, Uppasala University, Paris.
Kahneman, D. (1994). “New challenges to the rationality assumptions.” Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), 150, 18-36.
Kinder, D.R. and Kiewiet, D.R. (1979). “Economic discontent and political behavior: the role of personal grievances and collective economic judgement in congressional voting.” American Journal of Political Science, 23, 495-527.
Kramer, G.H. (1971). “Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896-1964.” American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
Kramer, G.H. (1983). “The ecological fallacy revisited: aggregate versus individual-level findings on economics and elections and sociotropic voting.” American Political Science Review, 77, 92-111.
Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Paldam, M. (eds.) (2000). “Economic voting: an introduction.” Electoral Studies (special issue Economics and Elections), 19, 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M.S. (1988). Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press.
Markus, G.B. (1988). “The impact of personal and national economic conditions on presidential voting: A pooled cross-section analysis.” American Journal of Political Science, 36, 829-834.
Markus, G.B. (1988). “The impact of personal and national economic conditions on the presiden-tial vote: a pooled cross-sectional analysis.” American Political Science Review, 32, 137-154.
Mueller, J.E. (1970). “Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review, 64, 18-34.
Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (1994). “The VP-function: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years.” Public Choice, 79, 213-245.
Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (1997a). “From the pocketbook of the welfare man: a pooled crosssection study of economic voting in Denmark, 1986-92.” British Journal of Political Science, 27,119-136.
Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (1997b). “The grievance asymmetry revisited: a micro study of economic voting in Denmark, 1986-92.” European Journal of Political Economy, 13, 81-99.
Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (2000). “What do voters know about the economy? A study of Danish data, 1990-1993.” Electoral Studies, 19, 363-392.
Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (2002). “The cost of ruling. A foundation stone for two theories,” in Dorussen and Taylor (eds.) Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
Nickelsburg, M. and Norpoth, H. (2000). “Commander-in-chief or chief economist? The president in the eye of the public.” Electoral Studies, 19, 313-332.
Nordhaus, W.D. (1975). “The political business cycle.” Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169-190.
Paldam, M. (1981). “A preliminary survey of the theories and findings on vote and popularity functions.” European Journal of Political Research, 9, 181-199.
Paldam, M. (1991). “How robust is the vote function?” in H. Norpoth, M.S. Lewis-Beck, and J.-D. Lafay (eds.) Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Paldam, M. (1997). “Political business cycles,” in D.C. Mueller (ed.) Perspectives on Public Choice- A Handbook. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Chap. 16.
Paldam, M. (2000). “Social capital: one or many? Definition and measurement.” Journal of Economic Surveys, 14, 629-653.
Paldam, M. “A small country in Europe’s integration. Generalizing the political economy of the Danish case.” Public Choice (forthcoming).
Paldam, M. and Skott, P. (1995). “A rational-voter explanation of the cost of ruling.” Public Choice, 83, 159-172.
Price, S. and Sanders, D. (1994). “Party support and economic perceptions in the UK: a two-level approach,” in D. Brouhton et al. (eds.) British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1994. London: Frank Cass, pp. 46-72.
Sanders, D. (2000). “The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: how much do the voters need to know? A study of British data, 1974-97.” Electoral Studies, 19, 275-294.
Stigler, G.J. (1973). “General economic conditions and national elections.” American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 63, 160-180. Special panel on Kramer (1971).
Tinbergen, J. (1956, 1964). Economic Policy: Principles and Design. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Veiga, F.J. and Veiga, L.G. (2004). “The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal.” Public Choice, 118(3-4), 341-364.
Wittman, D. (1995). The Myth of Democratic Failure. Why Political Institutions are Efficient. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media, LLC
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Paldam, M. (2008). Vote and Popularity Functions. In: Readings in Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75870-1_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75870-1_29
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-74574-9
Online ISBN: 978-0-387-75870-1
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsEconomics and Finance (R0)