Toward a Target-specific Method of Threat Assessment
This chapter describes a threat assessment model used at ICT to estimate the “attractiveness” of specific facilities to terrorist organizations. The model uses on-site evaluations of vulnerabilities to build a portfolio of possible attack scenarios. The scenarios are then analyzed using known or estimated sensitivities and target-assessment criteria for the different organizations. The results provide a means of rating the different scenarios according to their attractiveness to different types of terrorist groups. This will enable decision-makers to concentrate resources on the most the probable scenarios, rather than on worst-case scenarios. The model has provided credible results for actual venues.
KeywordsTerrorist Group Attack Scenario Target Country Bomb Suicide Threat Assessment
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