Skip to main content

Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Hurricanes and Climate Change

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

5. References

  • Aberson, S. D., and J. L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts of GPS Dropwindsonde Observations from the First-season Flights of the NOAA Gulfstream IV Jet Aircraft. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 421–428.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., 1970: Numerical Experiments with a Two-Dimensional Horizontal Variable Grid. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98, 810–822..

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arimoto, R., 2001: Eolian Dust and Climate: Relationships to Sources, Tropospheric Chemistry, Transport and Deposition. Earth Sci. Rev., 54, 29–42..

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bacon, D. P., N. N. Ahmad, Z. Boybeyi, T. J. Dunn, M.S. Hall, P. C-S. Lee, R. A. Sarma, M. D. Turner, K. W. Waight, S. H. Young, and J. W. Zack, 2000: A Dynamically Adapting Weather and Dispersion Model: The Operational Multi-scale Environment Model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 20442076.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baum, J. D., H. Luo, and R. Lohner, 1993: Numerical Simulation of a Blast inside a Boeing 747. AIAA 93-3091, 24th Fluid Dynamics Conference.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergot, T., G. Hello, and A. Joly., 1999: Adaptive Observations: A Feasibility Study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 743–765.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boybeyi, Z. N. N. Ahmad, D. P. Bacon, T. J. Dunn, M. S. Hall, P.C. S. Lee, R. A. Sarma, and T. R. Wait., 2000: Evaluation of the Operational Multi-scale Environment Model with Grid Adaptivity against the European Tracer Experiment. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 1541–1558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boybeyi Z., E. Novakovskaia, D. P. Bacon, M. Kaplan and R. MacCracken., 2007: Targeted GOES Satellite Observations to Improve Hurricane Track Forecast. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 164, 1–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braun, S. A., and W. K. Tao., 2000: Sensitivity of High-resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations. Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 12 3941–12 3961.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burpee, R. W., S. D. Aberson, J. L. Franklin, S. J. Lord, R. E. Tuleya., 1996: The Impact of Omega Dropwindsondes on Operational Hurricane Track Forecast Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 925934.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camp J. P., and M. T. Montgomery., 2001: Hurricane Maximum Intensity: Past and Present. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1704–1717.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carlson, T. N., and S. G. Benjamin., 1980: Radiative Heating Rates for Saharan Dust. J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 193–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christopher, S. A., and T. Jones., 2007: Satellite-based Assessment of Cloud-free Net Radiative Effect of Dust Aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean. Geophy. Res. Lett., 34, (L02810), doi:10.1029.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, T. L., and R. D. Farley., 1984: Severe Downslope Windstorm Calculations in Two and Three Spatial Dimensions Using Anelastic Interactive Grid Nesting: A Possible Mechanism for Gustiness. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 329–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • d’Almeida, G.A., 1987: On the Variability of Desert Aerosol Radiative Characteristics. J. Geophys. Res.., 92, 3017–3026..

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daley, R., 1991: Atmospheric Data Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 457 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Desflots, M., S. S. Chen, and J. E. Tenerelli, 2004: A Numerical Study of Rapid Intensity Change in Hurricane Lili, 26 th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietachmayer, S. G. and K. K. Droegemeier., 1992: Application of Continuous Dynamic Grid Adaptation Techniques to Meteorological Modeling. Part I: Basic Formulation and Accuracy. Mon. Wea. Rew., 120, 1675–1706.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunion, J.P., and C. S. Velden., 2004: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. BAMS, 85, 3 353–3 365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsner, J. B., and A. B. Kara, 1999: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. Oxford University Press, 488 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elsner, J. B., A. B. Kara, and M. A. Owens., 1998: Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency. J. of Clim., 12, 427–437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evan, A. T., J. Dunion, J. A. Foley, A. K. Heidinger, and C. S. Velden., 2006: New Evidence for a Relationship between Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and African Dust Outbreaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19813.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gelaro, R., R. H. Langland, G. D. Rohaly, T. E. Rossmond., 1999: An Assessment of the Singular-vector Approach to Target Observations using the FASTEX Dataset. Quart, J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3299–3328..

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldenberg, S. B., L. J. Shapiro., 1996: Physical Mechanisms for the Association of El Niño and West African Rainfall with Atlantic Major Hurricane Activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169–1187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gopalakrishnan, S.G., D. P. Bacon, N. N. Ahmad, Z. Boybeyi, T. J. Dunn, M. S. Hall, Y. Jin, P. C. S. Lee, D. E. Mays, R. V. Madala, R. A. Sarma, M. D. Turner, and T. R. Wait., 2002: An Operational Multiscale Hurricane Forecasting System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1830–1847.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goudie, A. S., and N. J. Middleton., 2002: Saharan Dust Storms: Nature and Consequences. Earth Sci. Rev., 56, 179–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joly, A., D. Jorgensen, M. A. Shapiro, A. Thorpe, P. Bessemoulin, K.A. Browning, J.-P. Cammas, J.-P. Chalon, S.A. Clough, K.A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, R. Gall, P.H. Hildebrand, R.H. Langland, Y. Lemaitre, P. Lynch, J.A. Moore, P.O.G. Persson, C. Snyder, and R.M. Wakimoto., 1997: The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1917–1940.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, R. W., 1977: A Nested Grid for a Three-dimensional Model of a Tropical Cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1528–1553.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kafatos, M., D. Sun, R. Gautam, Z. Boybeyi, R. Yang, and G. Cervone., 2006: Role of Anomalous Warm Gulf Waters in the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17802, doi:10.1029/2006GL026623.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufman, Y. J., D. Tanré, and O. Boucher., 2002: A Satellite View of Aerosols in the Climate System. Nature, 419, 215–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, H. M., M. C. Morgan, R. E. Morss., 2004: Evolution of Analysis Error and Adjoint-Based Sensitivities: Implications for Adaptive Observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 795–812.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau, W. K., and K. M. Kim., 2006: How Nature Foiled the 2006 Hurricane Forecasts. EOS, 88, 9 105–9 107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leslie, L. M., J.F. LeMarshall, R. P. Morison, C. Spinoso, R. J. Purser, N. Pescod and R. Seecamp., 1998: Improved Hurricane Track Forecasting from the Continuous Assimilation of High Quality Satellite Wind Data. Mon. Wet. Rev., 126, 1248–1258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leutbecher, M., 2003: A Reduced Rank Estimate of Forecast Error Variance Changes due to Intermittent Modifications of the Observing Network. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 729–742.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, F., A. M. Vogelmann, and V. Ramanathan., 2003: Saharan Dust Aerosol Radiative Forcing Measured from Space. J. Clim., 17, 2558–2571.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, Y-L, R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville., 1983: Bulk Parameterization of the Snow Field in a Cloud Model. J. Appl. Meteor., 22, 1065–1092.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Yubao, D.L. Zhang, and M.K. Yau., 1997: A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit Simulation and Verification. Mon. Wea. Rev, 125, 3073–3093.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E.N., 1990: Effects of Analysis and Model Errors on Routine Weather Forecasts, Proc. ECMWF seminars on 10 years of medium-range weather forecasting. Reading, , UK vol. 1, 115128.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mapes, B. E., and P. Zuidema., 1996: Radiative and Dynamical Consequences of Dry Tongues in the Tropical Troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 53,620–638.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McAdie, C. J., and M. B. Lawrence., 2000: Improvements in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin, 1970-98. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 989–997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, R.L., and I. Tegen., 1998: Radiate Forcing of a Tropical Direct Circulation by Soil Dust Aerosols. J. Atmos. Sci., 11, 3247–3267.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moon, I. J., I. Ginis, T. Hara., 2004: Effect of surface waves on air-sea momentum exchange. Part II: behavior of drag coefficient under tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 61 (19), 2334–2348.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pielke, R. A., and C. W. Landsea., 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925-95. Weather and Forecasting, 13, 621–631.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prospero, J. M., R. A. Glaccum, and R. T. Nees., 1981: Atmospheric Transport of Soil Dust from Africa to South America. Nature, 289, 570–572.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prospero, J. M., and P. J. Lamb., 2003: African Droughts and Dust Transport to the Caribbean: Climate Change Implications. Science, 302, 5647 1024–5467 1027doi:10.1126/ science.1089915.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skamarock, W. C., J. Oliger, and R. L. Street., 1989: Adaptive Grid Refinement for Numerical Weather Prediction. J. Comput. Phys, 80, 27–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, D., M. Kafatos, G. Cervone, Z. Boybeyi, and R. Yang, 2007: Satellite Microwave Detected SST Anomalies and Hurricane Intensification. Natural Hazards, Springer (in press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tompkins, A.M., 2001: Organization of Tropical Convection in Low Vertical Wind Shears: The Role of Water Vapor. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 529–545.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, J. F., 1984: Grid Generation Techniques in Computational Fluid Mechanics. AIAA J., 22, 1505–1523.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vitart, E., J. L. Anderson, and W. F. Stern., 1999: Impact of Large-scale Circulation on Tropical Storm Frequency, Intensity, and Location, Simulated by an Ensemble of GCM Integrations. J. Clim., 12, 11 3237–11 3254.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weaver, C. J., P. Ginoux., N.C. Hsu., M.-D. Chou, and J. Joiner., 2002: Radiative Forcing of Saharan Dust: GOCART Model Simulations Compared with ERBE Data. J. Atmos. Sci.., 59, 3 736–3 747.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhelmson, R. B., and C. S. Chen., 1982: A Simulation of the Development of Successive Cells along a Cold Outflow Boundary. J. Atmos. Sci, 39, 1466–1483.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, L., S. Braun., J. Qu., X. Hao., 2006: Simulating the Formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with AIRS Data. Geophys. Res. Lett.., 33, L04804, doi:10.1029/2005GL024665.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoneyma, K. and D. B. Parsons., 1999: A Proposed Mechanism for the Intrusion of Dry Air into the Tropical Western Pacific Region. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1524–1546.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, C., and M.-D. Chou., 1999: Variability of Water Vapor, Infrared Radiative Cooling, and Atmospheric Instability for Deep Convection in the Equatorial Western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci.., 56, 711–723.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu, T., and D.L. Zhang., 2006: The Impact of the Storm-induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Jntensity. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 23 (1), 14–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements:

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant ATM-0543330, and by NASA grant NX06AF30G.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Boybeyi, Z., Kafatos, M., Sun, D. (2009). Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting. In: Elsner, J., Jagger, T. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_18

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics