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Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario

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Hurricanes and Climate Change

Abstract

Since currently very few models can reach the high resolutions necessary for a detailed representation of tropical cyclones, most assessments of their response to climate change in coupled scenarios have to be based on indirect estimates of the hurricane activity potential. A modified Convective Yearly Genesis Potential index (CYGP) proposed by Royer et al. (1998) is applied here to the analysis of TC genesis in 15 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) that have run simulations for the IPCC AR4 for the 20th century and for scenario A2. For the current climate most of the models simulate rather realistic patterns of cyclogenesis, though the TC genesis in the different ocean basins differs from model to model. The cyclogenesis index shows interdecadal fluctuations and long term trends. In scenario A2 the patterns of response of cyclogenesis at the end of the 21st century differ according to the ocean basins and models. While in some ocean basins like the Indian Ocean, the majority of models compute an increasing trend in TC genesis, the response is less coherent in other basins where some models give a decreasing trend. The lack of coherence of the TC genesis response to future climate change can be associated to the different response patterns of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the coupled models, particularly over the Equatorial Pacific, and to their differences in the simulation of ENSO. Until some better convergence of the model SST response has been achieved, it seems rather premature to draw conclusions about possible future changes in TC genesis.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    see information at: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm

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Acknowledgments

We thank the modeling groups and the PCMDI for making the model data available. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Sciences. We acknowledge support from the European Commission 6th Framework Programme (Project ENSEMBLES, contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539), and the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR Project Cyclones8Climate)

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  1. GAME/CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS), 42 Avenue Coriolis, France, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01

    Jean-François Royer & Fabrice Chauvin

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  1. Jean-François Royer
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  1. Department of Geography, Florida State University, Ferndale Drive 114, Tallahassee, 32306, U.S.A.

    James B. Elsner

  2. S. Leyden Street 3122, Denver, 80222, U.S.A.

    Thomas H. Jagger

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Royer, JF., Chauvin, F. (2009). Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario. In: Elsner, J., Jagger, T. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_12

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