Abstract
The breakdown of an authoritarian regime does not always lead to a democratic outcome. It could, and historically in most cases has, led to the replacement of one authoritarian regime by another. However, particularly in the last quarter of the twentieth century, many cases of authoritarian breakdown have been part of a shift to democratic rule. The dynamics of this shift are more complicated than those involved in regime breakdown more narrowly considered because, as well as involving all of those forces which contributed to that breakdown, new elements will also usually play a part in structuring the change. This also means that there is more scope for transition to be derailed, and increases the level of potential uncertainty.
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Notes and References
Dankwart A. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy. Toward a Dynamic Model’, Comparative Politics 2, 3, April 1970, pp. 337–363.
Rustow, p. 353.
Rustow, p. 355.
Rustow, p. 356.
Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Southern Europe (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), and Guillermo O’Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986). All four volumes have also been published in a consolidated version, Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986). Henceforth all references will be to the separate volumes.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 6.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 3.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, pp. 5 and 4 respectively.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 19.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, pp. 28–31, 37 and 38.
The orization has been attempted using game theory and, within the confines of this approach, has had some success. See Gretchen Casper and Michelle M. Taylor, Negotiating Democracy. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule (Pittsburgh, University of Pittsburgh Press, 1996). See below.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 7.
Luciano Martins, ‘The Liberalization of Authoritarian Rule in Brazil’, Transitions... Latin America, p. 88.
Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 9.
It is also more useful than the discussion in Linz and Stepan, who give examples of liberalization without actually defining it. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), p. 3.
See the discussion in Adam Przeworski, ‘Democracy as a contingent outcome of conflicts’, Jon Elster and Rune Slagstad (eds.), Constitutionalism and Democracy (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 61. Also Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market. Political and Economic Reform in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 54–66.
Enrique A. Baloyra, ‘Democratic Transition in Comparative Perspective’, Enrique A. Baloyra (ed.), Comparing New Democracies. Transition and Consolidation in Mediterranean Europe and the Southern Cone (Boulder, Westview Press, 1987), pp. 40–42.
For the argument that what is central is negotiation between regime ‘Defender’ and regime ‘Challenger’ with the ‘Mass Public’ playing a mediating role, see Casper and Taylor.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 37. For Friedheim, a pact is ‘an open-ended bargaining process rather than a formal contract.’ Daniel V. Friedheim, ‘Bringing Society Back into Democratic Transition Theory after 1989: Pact Making and Regime Collapse’, East European Politics and Societies 7, 3, Fall 1993, p. 491
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 38. On pacts also see Charles Guy Gillespie, Negotiating Democracy. Politicians and Generals in Uruguay (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991), Chapter 8.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, p. 38.
Transitions... Tentative Conclusions, pp. 39–47.
Huntington, p. 165.
Huntington, p. 166.
Terry Lynn Karl, ‘Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America’, Comparative Politics, 23, 1, October 1990.
Karl ‘Dilemmas...’,p. 11.
Samuel P. Huntington, ‘How Countries Democratize’, Political Science Quarterly 106, 4, 1991–92, p. 584.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 169.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 169.
For one discussion of these, see Robert H. Dix, ‘The Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes’, Western Political Quarterly 35, 4, 1982, pp. 567–568.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 171.
For a discussion of the conservatizing effects of pact-making in Brazil, see Frances Hagopian, ‘‘Democracy by Undemocratic Means’? Elites, Political Pacts, and Regime Transition in Brazil’, Comparative Political Studies 23, 2, July 1990, pp. 147–170.
O’Donnell, ‘Introduction to the Latin American Cases’, Transitions... Latin America, pp. 12–13.
For example, see the comments in Diane Ethier, ‘Introduction: Processes of Transition and Democratic Consolidation: Theoretical Indicators’, Diane Ethier (ed.), Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Southern Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia (London, Macmillan, 1990), p. 11.
Ethier, ‘Introduction’, p. 11.
This is a principal element of the argument in Casper and Taylor. But here the population is considered as an undifferentiated mass, with no account taken of how popular opinion is manifested or the relationship between élites and mass.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 146. The total of 33 comes from p. 14.
e.g. John Keane, Democracy and Civil Society (London, Verso, 1988) and John Keane (ed.), Civil Society and the State (London, Verso, 1988).
According to Weigle and Butterfield, civil society is ‘the independent self-organization of society, the constituent parts of which voluntarily engage in public activity to pursue individual, group, or national interests within the context of a legally defined state-society relationship.’ Marcia A. Weigle and Jim Butterfield, ‘Civil Society in Reforming Communist Regimes. The Logic of Emergence’, Comparative Politics 25, 1 October 1992, p. 3. The strength of this definition lies in its acknowledgement of the importance of state recognition of a sphere of autonomous social activity, but its weakness is the view that that sphere must be legally defined. While formal, legal definition may strengthen social autonomy, to demand that this always be present seems unnecessarily restrictive.
For one argument in relation to ex-Communist states, see Baohui Zhang, ‘Corporatism, Totalitarianism, and Transitions to Democracy’, Comparative Political Studies 27, 1, April 1994, pp. 108–136. Also see below. The church can be a significant actor in the revival of civil society. Poland is an excellent example. For a discussion of its role in Brazil, see Andrew Hurrell, ‘The International Dimensions of Democratization in Latin America: The Case of Brazil’, Laurence Whitehead (ed), The International Dimensions of Democratization. Europe and the Americas (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 153–157.
Philippe C. Schmitter, ‘An Introduction to Southern European Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Turkey’, Transitions... Southern Europe, p. 7.
For one argument that this hierarchy of causes is not as clear cut as the transition school has suggested, but which indirectly shows the difficulty of saying much meaningful about the effect of international factors (i.e. either statements at a high level of generality or the identification of specific influences in particular cases), see Geoffrey Pridham, ‘International Influences and Democratic Transition: Problems of Theory and Practice in Linkage Politics’, Geoffrey Pridham (ed.), Encouraging Democracy. The International Context of Regime Transition in Southern Europe (Leicester, Leicester University Press, 1991), pp. 1–30.
Alfred Stepan, ‘Paths toward Redemocratization: Theoretical and Comparative Considerations’, Transitions... Comparative Perspectives, pp. 64–84. Also see Laurence Whitehead, ‘Democracy by Convergence and Southern Europe: a Comparative Politics Perspective’, Pridham, Encouraging Democracy, pp. 45–61, esp. pp. 46–48.
The restoration of democratic rule in countries liberated from the Nazis, such as Netherlands, France and Belgium, would be variants on this theme. Decolonization has also been significant, and may be seen as a variant of this theme.
For a discussion of US attempts to promote democracy in the Caribbean basin, see Laurence Whitehead, ‘The Imposition of Democracy: The Caribbean’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 59–92.
Transition studies frequently note the role of the oil price shock of the early 1970s in fostering regime change, but this is rarely linked to a broader structural view of the international economy. For example, see Alfred Tovias, ‘The International Context of Democratic Transition’, West European Politics 7, 2, April 1984, pp. 158–171.
For a discussion of Nicaragua, see Whitehead, ‘Imposition...’, pp. 77–83.
For an interesting argument, see Whitehead, ‘Democracy by Convergence’, pp. 50–52.
For a survey of Central America which notes the US role, see Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens and John D. Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy (Cambridge, Polity Press, 1992), Chapter 6. Also see Whitehead, ‘Imposition...’. For one discussion of Greece in these terms, see Susannah Verney and Theodore Couloumbis,’ state-International Systems Interaction and the Greek Transition to Democracy in the mid-1970s’, Pridham, Encouraging Democracy..., pp. 109–110. Also see below.
For a study of the US use of human rights in Latin America, see Kathryn Sikkink, ‘The Effectiveness of US Human Rights Policy, 1973–1980’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 93–124.
See the discussion in Thomas Carothers, ‘The Resurgence of United States Political Development Assistance to Latin America in the 1980s’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 125–145.
See Whitehead, ‘Imposition...’, pp. 77–83.
An example of a party is the Portuguese Socialist Party which had operated from Toulouse in France before the fall of the Caetano regime.
For a discussion of the role of the EC, see Geoffrey Pridham, ‘The Politics of the European Community, Transnational Networks and Democratic Transition in Southern Europe’, Pridham, Encouraging Democracy..., pp. 212–245. On Greece, see Basilios Tsingos, ‘Underwriting Democracy: The European Community and Greece’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 315–355, who sees the EC as having been much less activist in pressing democracy on Greece than other authors. He is particularly critical of Verney and Couloumbis (fn.58). Such conditionality, the attachment of specific conditions to the distribution of benefits, has been a common practice of such bodies as the IMF, although these are not usually specifically democratic in form.
Laurence Whitehead, ‘International Aspects of Democratization’, Transitions... Comparative Perspectives, pp. 25–31. For a broader discussion, see Wolf Grabendorff, ‘International Support for Democracy in Contemporary Latin America: The Role of the Party Internationals’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 201–226.
For one study, see Michael Pinto-Duschinsky, ‘International Political Finance: The Konrad Adenauer Foundation and Latin America’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 227–255.
For one discussion of the role of the church, see Huntington, Third Wave..., pp. 72–85.
For one discussion of this see Harvey Starr, ‘Democratic Dominoes. Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 35, 2, June 1991, pp. 356–381. Also see Laurence Whitehead, ‘Three International Dimensions of Democratization’, Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 5–8. A list of possible cases of contagion will be found on p. 5.
Whitehead, ‘Three International Dimensions...’, pp. 21–22.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 103.
Philippe C. Schmitter, ‘The International Context of Contemporary Democratization’, Stanford Journal of International Affairs 2, 1993, pp. 19–22. A longer form of this paper will be found in Whitehead, International Dimensions..., pp. 26–54.
Donald Share, ‘Transitions to Democracy and Transition Through Transaction’, Comparative Political Studies 19, 4, January 1987, p. 540.
O’Donnell, ‘Introduction’, Transitions... Latin America, p. 5.
Donald Share and Scott Mainwaring, ‘Transitions Through Transaction: Democratization in Brazil and Spain’, Wayne A. Selcher (ed.), Political Liberalization in Brazil. Dynamics, Dilemmas and Future Prospects (Boulder, Westview Press, 1985), pp. 178–179.
Huntington, Third Wave..., pp. 113–114. For another schema see Baloyra, pp. 10–18..
In his discussion of paths of redemocratization, Alfred Stepan identifies three variants of foreign intervention: (1) A functioning democracy that was conquered in war is restored after the conqueror is defeated by external force, e.g. Netherlands 1945; (2) The conqueror of a democracy is defeated by external force and a new democratic regime put in place, e.g. France 1945; (3) Democratic powers defeat an authoritarian regime and play a major part in the installation of a democratic regime e.g. West Germany 1945. Alfred Stepan, ‘Paths toward Redemocratization: Theoretical and Comparative Considerations’, Transitions... Comparative Perspectives, pp. 66–72.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 114.
In a later article, Donald Share, while acknowledging that the élite participated in the process, seemed less sure that they should initiate or lead it. Share, ‘Transitions to Democracy... ‘, pp. 529–531.
Juan J. Linz, ‘Crisis, Breakdown and Reequilibrium’, Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan (eds), The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978), p. 35. Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 114. It is also called transition by transaction by Diane Ethier. See Ethier, ‘Introduction’, p. 8.
He saw this type of transition as usually being fostered by a major institutional power-holder in the regime which came to believe that their long-term interests would be better served by a shift toward democracy than maintenance of the status quo. Such a path leaves the way open for elements within the regime to seek to tailor the process in such a way as to protect their core interests. As examples, he cites Spain where the process was initiated by a civilian or civilianized political leadership, Brazil where it was partly a case of initiation by ‘military as government’, and Greece (1973) and Portugal (1974) where it was initiated by the ‘military as institution.’ Stepan, p. 72.
Huntington, Third Wave..., pp. 127–141.
Share and Mainwaring, pp. 178–179. However in Share’s article, extrication has a different meaning; it ‘occurs when authoritarian regimes experience a sudden loss of legitimacy, and abruptly hand power over to the democratic opposition.’ Share, ‘Transitions to Democracy...’, p. 531.
Ethier, p. 8, who also emphasizes how the regime has only a tenuous control over the process because of the relative importance of opposition movements. Stepan’s notion of ‘party pact’ comes closest to this type of transition. He sees it as involving the construction of an oppositional pact to defeat the regime and lay the basis for democracy, and cites Colombia and Venezuela in 1958 as examples. Stepan, pp. 79–81.
Huntington did not include Bolivia in this category, but this is how it has been seen by Share and Mainwaring.
Huntington, Third Wave..., pp. 152–153.
He saw four sub-types of this: revolution, coup, collapse and extrication. Share, ‘Transitions to Democracy..., p. 531.
Stepan had three equivalents of this: (1)’ society-led regime termination’, taking the form of diffuse protests, e.g. Greece in 1973, Argentina after the Cordoba revolt in 1969 and Peru after the general strike of July 1977 had elements of this; (2) ‘Organized violent revolt coordinated by democratic reformist parties’, e.g. Costa Rica 1948 and Venezuela 1958 approximated this; (3) Marxist-led revolutionary war, of which there are no examples. Stepan, pp. 78–84.
Huntington, Third Wave..., pp. 142–149.
Huntington, Third Wave..., p. 115.
For example, see Karl, ‘Dilemmas... ‘; and Casper and Taylor.
Linz and Stepan.
For example, Karl, ‘Dilemmas... ‘, p. 1.
Rustow, pp. 350–352.
Linz and Stepan, p. 7.
Linz and Stepan, p. 7.
For example, Richard Snyder, ‘Explaining Transitions from Neopatrimonial Dictatorships’, Comparative Politics 24, 4, July 1992, pp. 379–399; Stephen Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1995).
This is discussed in Linz and Stepan, Chapter 3, and is well summarized on pp. 44–45.
Linz and Stepan, p. 42.
Juan J. Linz, ‘An Authoritarian Regime: Spain’, Erik Allardt and Stein Rokkan (eds.), Mass Politics: Studies in Political Sociology (New York, The Free Press, 1970). This conception provides the basis upon which the whole typology has been constructed.
This is discussed in Linz and Stepan, Chapter.4, esp. pp. 57–60.
Although if society is as flattened as Linz and Stepan imply, it is difficult to see how meaningful elections would be.
Linz and Stepan do not explain the relationship between early and late on the one hand, and early, frozen and mature post-totalitarian regimes on the other.
Linz and Stepan, Chapter 5. The reference is on p. 66.
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© 2000 Graeme Gill
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Gill, G. (2000). Elites and Transition. In: The Dynamics of Democratization. Palgrave, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-333-98554-0_3
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