Abstract
The study of the third wave,1 embodied in the ‘transition literature’, has conceptualized the course of regime change in terms of three phases: regime breakdown, democratic transition, and democratic consolidation. Breakdown involves the deconstruction and possibly disintegration of the old regime, transition is the shift from old structures and processes to new, and consolidation is when those structures and processes have become stabilized and so embedded in the collective consciousness of the society that they gain normative authority. These phases are logically, but not always temporally, distinct; all three phases overlap, even if the forces driving them are not the same. This is clearest in the case of regime breakdown and transition. With domestic political forces the main actors in the third wave of democratization, that process was a zero sum game; democratic forces could not be successful without the withdrawal or collapse of authoritarian power. This does not mean that the two processes, the collapse of authoritarian rule and the establishment of a democratic regime, are the same; the breakdown of authoritarian rule does not inevitably lead to a democratic polity, and historically most cases of authoritarian collapse have spawned further authoritarian regimes.
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Notes and References
To use the language of Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
For an attempt to schematize the transition in terms similar to this, see Robert H. Dix, ‘The Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes’, Western Political Quarterly 35, 4, 1982, pp. 568–569.
The probability that a democratic regime would survive four or five consecutive years of negative growth was said to be 57 per cent and 50 per cent respectively. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), p. 79, citing an unpublished study by Fernando Limongi and Adam Przeworski.
Stephen Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1995), pp. 33–36.
However, it is doubtful that anything can be read into these earlier bouts of economic difficulty, except perhaps that authoritarian regimes survived them, because all countries experience such periods at times.
Haggard and Kaufman, p. 46.
On economic crisis and the bureaucratic authoritarian regime, see David Collier (ed.), The New Authoritarianism in Latin America (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1979).
Haggard and Kaufman, Chapter 2. These examples are discussed more fully in Chapter 5.
Manuel Antonio Garreton, ‘The Political Evolution of the Chilean Military Regime and Problems in the Transition to Democracy’, Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
For some figures, which are not wholly consistent, see Haggard and Kaufman pp. 34–35 and Luis Carlos Bresser Pereira, Jose Maria Maravall and Adam Przeworski, Economic Reforms in New Democracies. A Social Democratic Approach (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993), p. 37.
This is argued at some length in Haggard and Kaufman, Part One.
Amos Perlmutter, Modern Authoritarianism. A Comparative Institutional Analysis (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1981), p. 2.
Haggard and Kaufman pp. 11–13.
This did not apply to Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, but they were, chiefly for political reasons, still on the margins of the dynamic engine of global economic growth.
Fernando H. Cardoso, ‘Entrepreneurs and the Transition Process: The Brazilian Case’, Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Comparative Perspectives (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 137–153.
For one discussion of this, see Karen L. Remmer, ‘Redemocratization and the Impact of Authoritarian Rule in Latin America’, Comparative Politics 17, 3, April 1985, pp. 253–275.
On Spain, see Jose Maria Maravall and Julian Santamaria, ‘Political Change in Spain and the Prospects for Democracy’, Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Southern Europe (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986). On Greece, see P. Nikiforos Diamandouros, ‘Regime Change and the Prospects for Democracy in Greece: 1974–1983’, Transitions... Southern Europe; Howard R. Penniman (ed.), Greece at the Polls. The National Elections of 1974 and 1977 (Washington, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1981); Linz and Stepan, Chapter 8. On Argentina, see Marcelo Cavarozzi, ‘Political Cycles in Argentina since 1955’, Transitions... Latin America. Also Roberto Aizcorbe, Argentina. The Peronist Myth. An Essay on the Cultural Decay in Argentina After the Second World War (Hicksville, Exposition Press, 1975).
See Huntington, Third Wave... pp. 72–85.
On this, see Laurence Whitehead, ‘International Aspects of Democratization’, Transitions... Comparative Perspectives, pp. 25–31.
Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (London, Penguin, 1992).
On this see Harvey Starr, ‘Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 35, 2, June 1991, pp. 356–381.
It may be that the experiences of Portugal and Spain stimulated pressures for democratization in the South American countries because of their common cultural ties and the important symbolic role that the European metropoles played in Ibero-American culture.
For a brief discussion of some approaches to this see Diane Ethier, ‘Introduction: Processes of Transition and Democratic Consolidation: Theoretical Indicators’, Diane Ethier (ed.), Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Southern Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia (London, Macmillan, 1990), p. 9.
Guillermo O’Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics (Berkeley, Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 1973). But see the discussion in Collier.
Karen L. Remmer, ‘New Theoretical Perspectives on Democratization’, Comparative Politics 28, 1, October 1995, p. 107.
Dix, pp. 563–566.
This is the distinction drawn by Perlmutter between autocracy and tyranny, which both refer to rule by a single individual, and authoritarianism which refers to ‘a collective dictatorship, an oligarchy, or a military government.’ Perlmutter, p. 1.
For a discussion of single party regimes, see Gary D. Wekkin et al. (eds.), Building Democracy in One-Party Systems (Westport, Praeger, 1993).
On military regimes, see Eric A. Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics. Military Coups and Governments (Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall, 1977); and Amos Perlmutter, ‘The Comparative Analysis of Military Regimes: Formations, Aspirations, and Achievements’, World Politics xxxiii, 1, October 1980, pp. 96–120.
On the nature of the Spanish regime, see Juan J. Linz, ‘An Authoritarian Regime: Spain’, Erik Allardt and Stein Rokkan (eds.), Mass Politics: Studies in Political Sociology (New York, The Free Press, 1970). The military was clearly a subordinate element in Spain.
On bureaucratic authoritarian regimes, see Collier; and O’Donnell, Modernization...
Charles G. Gillespie, ‘Uruguay’s Transition from Collegial Military-Technocratic Rule’, Transitions... Latin America, p. 181.
Kenneth Maxwell, ‘Regime Overthrow and the Prospects for Democratic Transition in Portugal’, Transitions... Southern Europe. Also Constantine P. Danopoulos, ‘Democratization by Golpe: The Experience of Modern Portugal’, Constantine P. Danopoulos (ed.), Military Disengagement from Politics (London, Routledge, 1988), p. 239.
There is not a large literature on this sort of regime, but for some discussion, see for example, Robert H. Jackson and Carl G. Rosberg, ‘Personal Rule. Theory and Practice in Africa’, Comparative Politics 16, 4, July 1984, pp. 421–442; Guenther Roth, ‘Personal Rulership, Patrimonialism, and Empire Building in the New States’, World Politics xx, 2, January 1968, pp. 194–206; Ann Ruth Willner, The Spellbinders. Charismatic Political Leadership (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1984).
In part this was agreed because of fears of the excessive politicization of the military that could result from a more institutional arrangement.
Huntington’s ‘reformists’ and’ standpatters’. Huntington, p. 121.
Perhaps the military institution, especially when in power, is the best illustration of this sort of structure.
See the discussion in Adam Przeworski,’ some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy’, Transitions... Comparative Perspectives.
Przeworski,’ some Problems...’, pp. 50–3.
Diamandouros, p. 147.
On the difference between social and political revolution and their effects, see Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolution. A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1979).
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© 2000 Graeme Gill
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Gill, G. (2000). The Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes. In: The Dynamics of Democratization. Palgrave, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-333-98554-0_2
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