Skip to main content

Introduction

  • Chapter

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 30))

Abstract

The “Introduction” sets the stage for forecasting by explaining its uses and how it relates to planning. It discusses how the principles cover all aspects of forecasting from formulating the problem to the use of the forecasts. It also explains where the principles come from. In short, they are based on the work of 40 leading experts who have reviewed the published research involving thousands of studies. Their conclusions have been subjected to extensive peer review by the other authors and by more than 120 outside reviewers, most of them leading experts in forecasting.

“If a man gives no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand.”

Confucius

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   429.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Armstrong, J. S. (1985), Long-Range Forecasting. New York: John Wiley. Full text at hops.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ascher, W. (1978), Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berelson, B. & G. A. Steiner (1964), Human Behavior: An Inventory of Scientific Findings. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cowles, A. (1933), “Can stock market forecasters forecast?” Econometrica, 1, 309–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Craft, E.D. (1998), “The value of weather information services for nineteenth century Great Lakes shipping,” American Economic Review, 88, 1059–1076.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dorn, H. F. (1950), “Pitfalls in population forecasts and projections,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 45, 311–334.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drucker, P. F. (1973), Management. New York: Harper and Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glaser, D. (1954), “A reconsideration of some parole prediction factors,” American Sociological Review, 19, 335–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulbert, M. (1999), “How dot-com makes a company smell sweet,” New York Times, August 15.

    Google Scholar 

  • MacGregor, D. (1938), “The major determinants in the prediction of social events, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 3, 179–204.

    Google Scholar 

  • March, J. G. & H. A. Simon (1958), Organizations. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, P.E. (1954), Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of Evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mitofsky, W. J. (1998), “Was 1996 a worse year for polls than 1948?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 62, 230–249.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perry, P. (1979), “Certain problems in election survey methodology,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 43, 312–325.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogburn, W. F. (1934), “Studies in prediction and the distortion of reality,” Social Forces, 13, 224–229.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reiss, A. J. (1951), “The accuracy, efficiency and validity of a prediction instrument,” American Journal of Sociology, 56, 552–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, H. T. (1998), “Convention center follies,” The Public Interest, 132, 58–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarbin, T. R. (1943), “A contribution to the study of actuarial and individual methods of prediction,” American Journal of Sociology, 48, 593–602.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherden, W. A. (1998), The Fortune Sellers. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skousen, M. (1997), “The perseverance of Paul Samuelson’s Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, No. 2, 137–152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Squire, P. S. (1988), “Why the 1936 Literary Digest poll failed,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 15, 125–133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winston, C. (1993), “Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists,” Journal of Economic Literature, 31, 1263–1289.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wold, H. & L. Jureen (1953), Demand Analysis: A Study in Econometrics. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2001 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Armstrong, J.S. (2001). Introduction. In: Armstrong, J.S. (eds) Principles of Forecasting. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 30. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_1

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-7401-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-306-47630-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics