Case adaptation using an incomplete causal model

Abstract

This paper describes a technique for integrating case-based reasoning with model-based reasoning to predict the behavior of biological systems characterized both by incomplete models and insufficient empirical data for accurate induction. This technique is implemented in CARMA, a system for rangeland pest management advising. CARMA's ability to predict the forage consumption judgments of 15 expert entomologists was empirically compared to that of CARMA's case-based and model-based components in isolation. This evaluation confirmed the hypothesis that integrating model-based and case-based reasoning through model-based adaptation can lead to more accurate predictions than the use of either technique individually.

This research was supported in part by grants from the University of Wyoming College of Agriculture and by a Faculty Grant-in-Aid from the University of Wyoming Office of Research.