Group report: Integrated assessment and future scenarios for the coast

Abstract

A prototype scenario assessment was carried out with help of a DP-S-I-R framework to provide an outline forward look at the European coastal areas. Impacts of change were assessed for the following major sectoral or cross-sectoral drivers: climate change, agriculture/forestry, urbanisation, tourism, industry and trade, fishery and shellfish fishery, and energy. The present situation was tabulated prior to an outline of the impacts of three scenarios, i.e. (1) a world market perspective, (2) global sustainability and (3) environmental stewardship. From twelve identified impact categories, three were judged to be of particular significance in the present situation: habitat loss (including coastal squeeze); changes in biodiversity; and the loss of fisheries productivity. A group of three impacts — eutrophication-related effects, contamination-related effects and coastal erosion — were all judged to be of moderate importance in most areas. All others were allocated only local importance. The analysis suggests that the major current drivers will still play the dominant role, augmented by climate change. Drivers and impacts intensities usually increase under the perspective of a more globalised world (scenario 1) and usually decrease through better management, mitigation and adaptation measures of scenarios 2 and 3. Under scenario 1, the eastern countries (Black Sea and Baltic Sea areas) are particularly prone to eutrophication and contamination impacts, as well as habitat and biodiversity loss, due to expansion of mass tourism eastwards, together with intensification of agriculture and aquaculture. Under scenario 2 more stringent regulations and management reduce environmental impacts. Under scenario 3 impacts are reduced through decentralisation, although this may also result in sub-optimal management (local fragmentation).