Skip to main content

Forecasting volcanic eruptions using geostatistical methods

  • Conference paper

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Aspinall WP, Woo G, Voight B, Baxter P (2003) Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 128(1-3), 273–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall WP, Carniel R, Jaquet O, Woo G, Hincks T (2004) Using Hidden Multistate Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, submitted to Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

    Google Scholar 

  • Carniel R, Di Cecca M (1999) Dynamical tools for the analysis of long term evolution of volcanic tremor at Stromboli. Annali di Geofisica, 42,3: 483–495

    Google Scholar 

  • Carniel R, Di Cecca M, Rouland D (2003) Ambrym, Vanuatu (July-August 2000): Spectral and dynamical transitions on the hours-to-days timescale. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 128,1-3: 1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carniel R, Ortiz R, Di Cecca M (2004) Spectral and dynamical hints on the timescale of preparation of the 5 April 2003 explosion at Stromboli volcano. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, submitted to saJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

    Google Scholar 

  • Chilès JP, Delfiner P (1999) Geostatistics: modelling spatial uncertainty. Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, p. 695

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaquet O, Carniel R (2001) Stochastic modelling at Stromboli: a volcano with remarkable memory. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 105, 249–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaquet O, Carniel R (2003) Multivariate stochastic modelling: towards forecasts of paroxysmal phases at Stromboli. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 128, 261–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaquet O, Carniel R, Sparks RSJ, Thompson G (2004) DEVIN: a forecasting approach using stochastic methods applied to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, submitted to Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilburn CRJ, Voight B (1998) Slow fractures as eruption precursors at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, No. 19, 3665–3668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilburn CRJ (2003) Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 125, 271–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lantuéjoul C (2002) Geostatistical simulation: models and algorithms. Springer, p. 256

    Google Scholar 

  • Matheron G (1962) Traité de géostatistique appliquée. Tome 1, Editions Technip, Paris, 334

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller AD, Stewart RC, White RA, Luckett R, Baptie BJ, Aspinall WP, Latchman JL, Lynch LL, Voight B (1998) Seismicity associated with dome growth and collapse at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 3401–3404

    Google Scholar 

  • Ortiz R, Moreno H, Garcia A, Fuentealba G, Astiz M, Peña P, Sanchez N, Tárraga M (2003) Villarica Volcano (Chile): Characteristics of volcanic tremor and forecasting of small eruptions by means of means of material failure method. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 128,1-3, 247–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ripepe M, Harris AJL, Carniel R (2002) Thermal, seismic and infrasonic evidences of variable degassing rates at Stromboli volcano. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 118, 285–297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robertson REA, Aspinall WP, Herd RA, Norton GE, Sparks RSJ, Young SR (2000) The 1995-98 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 358, 1619–1637

    Google Scholar 

  • Sparks RSJ (2003) Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters, 210, 1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Sparks RSJ, Young SR (2002) The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: overview of scientific results. In: Druitt, T.H. and Kokelaar, B.P. (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999, Geological Society, London, Memoirs 21, 45–69

    Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Hoblitt RP, Clarke AB, Lockhart AB, Miller AD, Lynch L, McMahon J (1998) Remarkable cyclic ground deformation monitored in real time on Montserrat, and its use in eruption forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, No. 18, 3405–3408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Young KD, Hidayat D, Subandrio, Purbawinata MA, Ratdomopurbo A, Suharna, Panut, Sayudi DS, LaHusen R, Marso J, Murray TL, Dejean M, Iguchi M, Ishihara K (2000) Deformation and seismic precursors to dome-collapse and fountain-collapse nuées ardentes at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, 1994-1998. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 100, 261–287

    Google Scholar 

  • Wackernagel H (1995) Multivariate geostatistics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1–256

    Google Scholar 

  • Woo G (1999) The mathematics of natural catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London, p. 292

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Jaquet, O., Carniel, R., Namar, R., Di Cecca, M. (2005). Forecasting volcanic eruptions using geostatistical methods. In: Geostatistics for Environmental Applications. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-26535-X_35

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics