Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Operations Research and Health Care pp 255–274Cite as

Modeling Health Outcomes for Economic Analysis

  • Chapter

  • 3041 Accesses

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 70))

Summary

Measuring health outcomes is critical for individual and societal decision making. This chapter briefly reviews the field of health outcomes modeling in general and provides detailed theoretical background for one specific class of such models, the Quality-Adjusted Life Years model, which is primarily grounded in operations research and utility theory. The chapter describes methodological issues and concludes with a discussion of promising areas for further research.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Fryback, D.G. (1998). Methodological issues in measuring health status and health-related quality of life for population health measures: A brief overview of the “HALY” family of measures. In Field, M.J. and M.R. Gold, Eds., Summarizing Population Health-Directions for the Development and Application of Population Metrics, National Academy Press, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Gold, M.R., J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell, and M.C. Weinstein (1996). Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Ware, J., Jr., and C.D. Sherbourne (1992). The MOS 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36). I. Conceptual framework and item selection. Medical Care, 30, 473–83.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Torrance, G.W., M.H. Boyle, and S.P. Horwood (1982). Application of multi-attribute utility theory to measure social preferences for health states. Operations Research, 30, 1043–1069.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Nord, E., J.L. Pinto, J. Richardson, P. Menzel, and P. Ubel (1999). Incorporating societal concerns for fairness in numerical valuations of health programmes. Health Economics, 8, 25–39.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Nord, E. (1999). Cost-Value Analysis in Health Care: Making Sense out of QALYs. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Russell L., M. Gold, J. Siegel, N. Daniels, and M.C. Weinstein (1996). The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in health and medicine: Panel on cost-effectiveness in health and medicine. Journal of the American Medical Association, 276, 1172–1177.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Fanshel, S. and J.W. Bush (1970). A health-status index and its application to health-services outcomes. Operations Research, 18, 1021–1066.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Pliskin, J.S., D.S. Shepard, and M.C. Weinstein (1980). Utility functions for life years and health status. Operations Research, 28, 206–224.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  10. Johannesson, M. (1994). QALYs, HYEs and individual preferences-A graphical illustration. Social Science and Medicine, 39, 1623–1632.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. McNeil, B.J., R. Weichselbaum, and S.G. Pauker (1978). Fallacy of the five-year survival in lung cancer. New England Journal of Medicine, 299, 1397–1401.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Stiggelbout, A.M., G.M. Kiebert, J. Kievit, J.W.H. Leer, G. Stoter, and J.C.J.M. de Haes (1994). Utility assessment in cancer patients: adjustment of time tradeoff scores for the utility of life years and comparison with standard gamble scores. Medical Decision Making, 14, 82–90.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Verhoef, L.C.G., A.F.J. de Haan, and W.A.J. van Daal (1994). Risk attitude in gambles with years of life: Empirical support for prospect theory. Medical Decision Making, 14, 194–200.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Mehrez, A. and A. Gafni (1987). An empirical evaluation of two assessment methods for utility measurement for life years. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 21, 371–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Bleichrodt, H., P. Wakker, and M. Johannesson (1997). Characterizing QALYs by risk neutrality. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 15, 107–114.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Miyamoto, J.M., P. Wakker, H. Bleichrodt, and H.J.M. Peters (1998). The zero-condition: A simplifying assumption in QALY measurement and multiattribute utility. Management Science, 44, 839–849.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Stiggelbout, A.M., G.M. Kiebert, J. Kievit, J.W.H. Leer, G. Stoter, and J.C.J.M. de Haes (1994). Utility assessment in cancer patients: adjustment of time tradeoff scores for the utility of life years and comparison with standard gamble scores. Medical Decision Making, 14, 82–90.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Miyamoto, J.M. and S.A. Eraker (1988). A multiplicative model of the utility of survival duration and health quality. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 117, 3–20.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Bleichrodt, H. and M. Johannesson (1996). The validity of QALYs: An experimental test of constant proportional tradeoff and utility independence. Medical Decision Making, 17, 21–32.

    Google Scholar 

  20. von Neumann, J. and O. Morgenstern (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  21. von Winterfeldt, D. and W. Edwards (1986). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Bleichrodt, H. (1995). QALYs and HYEs: Under what conditions are they equivalent? Journal of Health Economics, 14, 17–37.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Richardson, J., J. Hall, and G. Salkeld (1996). The measurement of utility in multiphase health states. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 12, 151–62.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Kuppermann, M., S. Shiboski, D. Feeny, E.P. Elkin, and E. Washington (1997). Can preference scores for discrete states be used to derive preference scores for an entire path of events? Medical Decision Making, 17, 42–55.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. MacKeigan, L.D., B.J. O’Brien, and P.I. Oh (1999). Holistic versus composite preferences for lifetime treatment sequences for Type 2 diabetes. Medical Decision Making, 19, 113–21.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Spencer, A. (2003). A test of the QALY model when health varies over time. Social Science and Medicine, 57, 1697–1706.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  27. The EuroQol Group (1990). EuroQol-a new facility for the measurement of health-related quality of life. Health Policy, 16, 199–208.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Hsee, C.K. and R.P. Abelson (1991). Velocity relation: Satisfaction as a function of the first derivative of outcome over time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 341–7.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Chapman, G.B. (1996). Expectations and preferences for sequences of health and money. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 59–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Ariely, D. (1998). Combining experiences over time: The effects of duration, intensity changes and on-line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 19–45.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Loewenstein, G.F. and N. Sicherman (1991). Do workers prefer increasing wage profiles? Journal of Labor Economics, 9, 67–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Loewenstein, G.F. and D. Prelec (1991). Negative time preference. American Economic Review, 81, 347–52.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Krabbe, P.F.M. and G.J. Bonsel (1998). Sequence effects, health profiles, and the QALY model: In search of realistic modeling. Medical Decision Making, 18, 178–88.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Chapman, G.B. (2000). Preferences for improving and declining sequences of health outcomes. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 203–218.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  35. Ariely, D. and G. Zauberman (2000). On the making of an experience: The effects of breaking and combining experiences on their overall evaluation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 219–232.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Ariely, D. and Z. Carmon (2000). Gestalt characteristics of experiences: The defining features of summarized events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 191–201.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Loewenstein, G.F. and D. Prelec (1993). Preferences for sequences of outcomes. Psychological Review, 100, 91–108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Chapman, G.B. (1998). Sooner or later: The psychology of intertemporal choice. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 38, 83–113.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Varey, C. and D. Kahneman (1992). Experiences extended across time: evaluation of moments and episodes. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 169–85.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Kahneman, D., B.L. Fredrickson, C.A. Schreibner, and D.A. Redelmeier (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4, 401–5.

    Google Scholar 

  41. Fredrickson, B.L. and D. Kahneman (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. Redelmeier, D.A. and D. Kahneman (1996). Patients’ memories of painful medical treatments: real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  43. Ariely, D. and G. Loewenstein (2000). When does duration matter in judgment and decision making? Journal of Experimental Psychology, 129, 508–523.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  44. Langer, T., R. Sarin and M. Weber (2000). The retrospective evaluation of payment sequences: Duration neglect and Peak-and-End-Effects. Working Paper, University of Manheim.

    Google Scholar 

  45. Baumgartner, H., M. Sujan, and D. Padgett (1997). Patterns of affective reactions to advertisements: the integration of moment-to-moment responses into overall judgments. Journal of Marketing Research, 34, 219–232.

    Google Scholar 

  46. Bleichrodt, H. and M. Johannesson (2001). Time preference for health: A test of stationarity versus decreasing timing aversion. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 45, 265–282.

    Article  PubMed  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  47. Redelmeier, D.A. and D.M. Heller (1993). Time preference in medical decision making and cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decision Making, 13, 212–217.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Chapman, G.B. and A.S. Elstein (1995). Valuing the future: Temporal discounting of health and money. Medical Decision Making, 15, 373–88.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Chapman, G.B. (1996). Temporal discounting and utility for health and money. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 22, 771–791.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. MacKeigan, L.D., L.N. Larson, J.R. Draugalis, J.L. Bootman, and L.R. Burns (1993). Time preference for health gains versus health losses. Pharmacoeconomics, 3, 374–386.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  51. Ganiats, T.G., R.T. Carson, R.M. Hamm, S.B. Cantor, W. Sumner, S.J. Spann, M.D. Hagen, and C. Miller (2000). Population-based time preferences for future health outcomes. Medical Decision Making, 20, 263–270.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332

    Thitima Kongnakorn & François Sainfort

Authors
  1. Thitima Kongnakorn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. François Sainfort
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Stanford University, USA

    Margaret L. Brandeau

  2. Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

    François Sainfort

  3. University of California at Los Angeles, USA

    William P. Pierskalla

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kongnakorn, T., Sainfort, F. (2005). Modeling Health Outcomes for Economic Analysis. In: Brandeau, M.L., Sainfort, F., Pierskalla, W.P. (eds) Operations Research and Health Care. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 70. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8066-2_10

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8066-2_10

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-7629-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-8066-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation