Advertisement

Modeling Health Outcomes for Economic Analysis

  • Thitima Kongnakorn
  • François Sainfort
Part of the International Series in Operations Research & Management Science book series (ISOR, volume 70)

Summary

Measuring health outcomes is critical for individual and societal decision making. This chapter briefly reviews the field of health outcomes modeling in general and provides detailed theoretical background for one specific class of such models, the Quality-Adjusted Life Years model, which is primarily grounded in operations research and utility theory. The chapter describes methodological issues and concludes with a discussion of promising areas for further research.

Key words

Health-related quality of life Medical decision analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis Utility theory 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. [1]
    Fryback, D.G. (1998). Methodological issues in measuring health status and health-related quality of life for population health measures: A brief overview of the “HALY” family of measures. In Field, M.J. and M.R. Gold, Eds., Summarizing Population Health-Directions for the Development and Application of Population Metrics, National Academy Press, Washington DC.Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Gold, M.R., J.E. Siegel, L.B. Russell, and M.C. Weinstein (1996). Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Oxford University Press, New York.Google Scholar
  3. [3]
    Ware, J., Jr., and C.D. Sherbourne (1992). The MOS 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36). I. Conceptual framework and item selection. Medical Care, 30, 473–83.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. [4]
    Torrance, G.W., M.H. Boyle, and S.P. Horwood (1982). Application of multi-attribute utility theory to measure social preferences for health states. Operations Research, 30, 1043–1069.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. [5]
    Nord, E., J.L. Pinto, J. Richardson, P. Menzel, and P. Ubel (1999). Incorporating societal concerns for fairness in numerical valuations of health programmes. Health Economics, 8, 25–39.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. [6]
    Nord, E. (1999). Cost-Value Analysis in Health Care: Making Sense out of QALYs. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.Google Scholar
  7. [7]
    Russell L., M. Gold, J. Siegel, N. Daniels, and M.C. Weinstein (1996). The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in health and medicine: Panel on cost-effectiveness in health and medicine. Journal of the American Medical Association, 276, 1172–1177.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. [8]
    Fanshel, S. and J.W. Bush (1970). A health-status index and its application to health-services outcomes. Operations Research, 18, 1021–1066.Google Scholar
  9. [9]
    Pliskin, J.S., D.S. Shepard, and M.C. Weinstein (1980). Utility functions for life years and health status. Operations Research, 28, 206–224.MathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  10. [10]
    Johannesson, M. (1994). QALYs, HYEs and individual preferences-A graphical illustration. Social Science and Medicine, 39, 1623–1632.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. [11]
    McNeil, B.J., R. Weichselbaum, and S.G. Pauker (1978). Fallacy of the five-year survival in lung cancer. New England Journal of Medicine, 299, 1397–1401.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. [12]
    Stiggelbout, A.M., G.M. Kiebert, J. Kievit, J.W.H. Leer, G. Stoter, and J.C.J.M. de Haes (1994). Utility assessment in cancer patients: adjustment of time tradeoff scores for the utility of life years and comparison with standard gamble scores. Medical Decision Making, 14, 82–90.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. [13]
    Verhoef, L.C.G., A.F.J. de Haan, and W.A.J. van Daal (1994). Risk attitude in gambles with years of life: Empirical support for prospect theory. Medical Decision Making, 14, 194–200.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. [14]
    Mehrez, A. and A. Gafni (1987). An empirical evaluation of two assessment methods for utility measurement for life years. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 21, 371–375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. [15]
    Bleichrodt, H., P. Wakker, and M. Johannesson (1997). Characterizing QALYs by risk neutrality. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 15, 107–114.Google Scholar
  16. [16]
    Miyamoto, J.M., P. Wakker, H. Bleichrodt, and H.J.M. Peters (1998). The zero-condition: A simplifying assumption in QALY measurement and multiattribute utility. Management Science, 44, 839–849.Google Scholar
  17. [17]
    Stiggelbout, A.M., G.M. Kiebert, J. Kievit, J.W.H. Leer, G. Stoter, and J.C.J.M. de Haes (1994). Utility assessment in cancer patients: adjustment of time tradeoff scores for the utility of life years and comparison with standard gamble scores. Medical Decision Making, 14, 82–90.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. [18]
    Miyamoto, J.M. and S.A. Eraker (1988). A multiplicative model of the utility of survival duration and health quality. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 117, 3–20.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. [19]
    Bleichrodt, H. and M. Johannesson (1996). The validity of QALYs: An experimental test of constant proportional tradeoff and utility independence. Medical Decision Making, 17, 21–32.Google Scholar
  20. [20]
    von Neumann, J. and O. Morgenstern (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  21. [21]
    von Winterfeldt, D. and W. Edwards (1986). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.Google Scholar
  22. [22]
    Bleichrodt, H. (1995). QALYs and HYEs: Under what conditions are they equivalent? Journal of Health Economics, 14, 17–37.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. [23]
    Richardson, J., J. Hall, and G. Salkeld (1996). The measurement of utility in multiphase health states. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 12, 151–62.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  24. [24]
    Kuppermann, M., S. Shiboski, D. Feeny, E.P. Elkin, and E. Washington (1997). Can preference scores for discrete states be used to derive preference scores for an entire path of events? Medical Decision Making, 17, 42–55.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. [25]
    MacKeigan, L.D., B.J. O’Brien, and P.I. Oh (1999). Holistic versus composite preferences for lifetime treatment sequences for Type 2 diabetes. Medical Decision Making, 19, 113–21.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. [26]
    Spencer, A. (2003). A test of the QALY model when health varies over time. Social Science and Medicine, 57, 1697–1706.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  27. [27]
    The EuroQol Group (1990). EuroQol-a new facility for the measurement of health-related quality of life. Health Policy, 16, 199–208.Google Scholar
  28. [28]
    Hsee, C.K. and R.P. Abelson (1991). Velocity relation: Satisfaction as a function of the first derivative of outcome over time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 341–7.Google Scholar
  29. [29]
    Chapman, G.B. (1996). Expectations and preferences for sequences of health and money. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 59–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. [30]
    Ariely, D. (1998). Combining experiences over time: The effects of duration, intensity changes and on-line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 19–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. [31]
    Loewenstein, G.F. and N. Sicherman (1991). Do workers prefer increasing wage profiles? Journal of Labor Economics, 9, 67–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. [32]
    Loewenstein, G.F. and D. Prelec (1991). Negative time preference. American Economic Review, 81, 347–52.Google Scholar
  33. [33]
    Krabbe, P.F.M. and G.J. Bonsel (1998). Sequence effects, health profiles, and the QALY model: In search of realistic modeling. Medical Decision Making, 18, 178–88.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  34. [34]
    Chapman, G.B. (2000). Preferences for improving and declining sequences of health outcomes. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 203–218.CrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  35. [35]
    Ariely, D. and G. Zauberman (2000). On the making of an experience: The effects of breaking and combining experiences on their overall evaluation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 219–232.Google Scholar
  36. [36]
    Ariely, D. and Z. Carmon (2000). Gestalt characteristics of experiences: The defining features of summarized events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 191–201.Google Scholar
  37. [37]
    Loewenstein, G.F. and D. Prelec (1993). Preferences for sequences of outcomes. Psychological Review, 100, 91–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. [38]
    Chapman, G.B. (1998). Sooner or later: The psychology of intertemporal choice. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 38, 83–113.Google Scholar
  39. [39]
    Varey, C. and D. Kahneman (1992). Experiences extended across time: evaluation of moments and episodes. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 169–85.Google Scholar
  40. [40]
    Kahneman, D., B.L. Fredrickson, C.A. Schreibner, and D.A. Redelmeier (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4, 401–5.Google Scholar
  41. [41]
    Fredrickson, B.L. and D. Kahneman (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  42. [42]
    Redelmeier, D.A. and D. Kahneman (1996). Patients’ memories of painful medical treatments: real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  43. [43]
    Ariely, D. and G. Loewenstein (2000). When does duration matter in judgment and decision making? Journal of Experimental Psychology, 129, 508–523.Google Scholar
  44. [44]
    Langer, T., R. Sarin and M. Weber (2000). The retrospective evaluation of payment sequences: Duration neglect and Peak-and-End-Effects. Working Paper, University of Manheim.Google Scholar
  45. [45]
    Baumgartner, H., M. Sujan, and D. Padgett (1997). Patterns of affective reactions to advertisements: the integration of moment-to-moment responses into overall judgments. Journal of Marketing Research, 34, 219–232.Google Scholar
  46. [46]
    Bleichrodt, H. and M. Johannesson (2001). Time preference for health: A test of stationarity versus decreasing timing aversion. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 45, 265–282.CrossRefPubMedMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  47. [47]
    Redelmeier, D.A. and D.M. Heller (1993). Time preference in medical decision making and cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decision Making, 13, 212–217.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  48. [48]
    Chapman, G.B. and A.S. Elstein (1995). Valuing the future: Temporal discounting of health and money. Medical Decision Making, 15, 373–88.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  49. [49]
    Chapman, G.B. (1996). Temporal discounting and utility for health and money. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 22, 771–791.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. [50]
    MacKeigan, L.D., L.N. Larson, J.R. Draugalis, J.L. Bootman, and L.R. Burns (1993). Time preference for health gains versus health losses. Pharmacoeconomics, 3, 374–386.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  51. [51]
    Ganiats, T.G., R.T. Carson, R.M. Hamm, S.B. Cantor, W. Sumner, S.J. Spann, M.D. Hagen, and C. Miller (2000). Population-based time preferences for future health outcomes. Medical Decision Making, 20, 263–270.PubMedGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thitima Kongnakorn
    • 1
  • François Sainfort
    • 1
  1. 1.School of Industrial and Systems EngineeringGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta

Personalised recommendations