State of Development of Gas Hydrate as an Economic Resource

5.10. Conclusions

Although the rewards of success for commercial hydrate development may be extremely high, a relatively small proportion of high-risk projects are perceived to be able to succeed to the level of breakthrough. Commercial development of hydrate natural gas deposits has the potential to be paradigm shifting because of the amount of natural gas sequestered in hydrate. If only a small part of the gas can be produced, especially adjacent to countries that are presently energy importers, there will be major economic and geopolitical consequences that would dramatically change the present energy supply and consumption system.

The drift from a low cost combustible energy resource base to a higher cost level has now begun because of increasing world demand combined with political insecurity. It is unlikely that low cost energy will ever return, especially if demand outside the United States continues to increase. Therefore, although commercialization of hydrate natural gas would almost certainly have been profitable at somewhat lower energy cost levels than about $40–$50 per bbl, energy costs in excess of that level will inevitably spur development of unconventional energy resources such as hydrate natural gas.

The topic of hydrate as a natural resource is beginning to become considered seriously by industry, although not necessarily by major energy companies. At the 2005 Offshore Technology Conference, for instance, as many people attended the technical session “Hydrate as a Resource” as attended “Hydrate as a Drilling Hazard”, for the first time. Smaller, innovative companies, in which other energy innovations have commonly taken place during the last 40 years, are beginning to consider issues of hydrate recovery.