An Analytical Perspective

Conclusions

The resource constraint is unlikely to bite in the next ten years and oil and gas supplies are likely to become more diverse. Recent price strength and volatility is at least partly cyclical. However, the US, Europe and North-East Asia will become more dependent on imported energy and there are real concerns about political stability and barriers to investment in the Non-OECD countries that will provide a growing share of the world’s energy. Infrastructure problems should be avoidable with appropriate regulation. Policies to enhance energy security almost always involve economic and environmental trade-offs.