Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Flexible Carbon Mitigation Policies: Analysis with a Global Multi-Regional MARKAL Model

  • Chapter
The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 22))

Abstract

The Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR-Climate) explores the predictability, variability and risks of climate change and the socio-economic response to it. The Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) and the University of Geneva contribute to this programme by using models to simulate the impacts of policies for climate change mitigation. This study quantifies the benefits of several policies enhancing the flexibility of carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation, with emphasis placed on emissions trading, optimal timing paths and support for learning-by-doing (LBD) in the use of low-carbon technologies. We present illustrative results for a “Soft-landing” scenario, which imposes a CO2-emission stabilization target that is consistent with stabilizing CO2concentration at 550 ppmv in the long run. This analysis has been conducted with the Global MARKAL Model (GMM), which is a multi-regional, “bottom-up”, partial equilibrium energy-system model with endogenized technology learning (ETL). Incorporation of flexible CO2mitigation policies leads to significant reductions in energy-system costs and marginal costs of CO2abatement as well as increasing diffusion of advanced low-carbon technologies. In the future, an extended GMM model could be linked to a climate model (e.g., C-Goldstein, Marsh et al., 2002) to implement an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) that would allow examining impacts of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • ACROPOLIS (Assessing Climate Response Options: POLIcy Simulations), 2003: Final report, April 2001- September 2003. Prepared by IER, Germany and IPTS-JRC, Spain, Contract No: ENK6-CT-2000–00443, Project funded by the European Community under the ‘Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development’ — Framework Programme V (1998–2002).

    Google Scholar 

  • Barreto, L., 2001: Technological Learning in Energy Optimisation Models and Deployment of Emerging Technologies, PhD Dissertation No 14151, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barreto, L., Kypreos, S., 2002: Multi-regional Technological Learning in the Energy-Systems MARKAL Model. International Journal of Global Energy Issues. Vol. 17. No 3., pp. 189–213.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barreto, L., Kypreos, S., 2004: Emissions trading and technology deployment in an energy-systems “bottom-up” model with technology learning, European Journal of Operational Research. Vol. 158 (1), pp. 243–261.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beg, N., Morlot, J.C., Davidson, O., Afrane-Okesse, Y., Tyani, L., Denton, F., Sokona, Y., Thomas, J.P., Lebre la Rovere, E., Parikh, J.K., Parikh, K., Rahman, A., 2002: Linkages between Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Climate Policy 77, pp. 1–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beltran, C., Drouet, L., Edwards, N. R., Haurie, A. B., Vial, J. -P., Zachary, D. S., 2004: An Oracle Method to Couple Climate and Economic Dynamics. Swiss National Centre of Competence (NCCR) “Climate”, Work Package 4: “Climate Risk Assessment”, NCCR-WP4 Working Paper 26, January 2004, Geneva, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard, O., Criqui, P., Trommetter, M., Viguier, L., 2001: Equity and efficiency in climate change negotiations: a scenario for world emission entitlements by 2030. IEPE-Grenoble, Cahier de Recherche n ° 26, July 2001, 30 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • David, J., Herzog, H., 2000: The cost of Carbon Capture, Paper presented at the Fifth International Conference on GHG Control Technologies, Cairns, Australia, August 13–16, 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Den Elzen, M.G.J., de Moor, A.P.G., 2001: The Bonn Agreement and Mar-rakesh Accords: an updated analysis. RIVM Report no. 728001017, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Beethoven, the Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration, 2003: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) — Model Documentation. Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eyckmans, J., van Regemorter, D., van Steenberghe, V., 2001: Is Kyoto fatally flawed? — An analysis with MacGEM. Energy, Transport and Environment Working Papers Series n ° 2001–18, Center for Economic Studies, Energy, Transport and Environment Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fishbone, L.G., Abilock, H., 1981: MARKAL, a Linear-Programming Model for Energy Systems Analysis: Technical Description of the BNL Version, International Journal of Energy Research. Vol. 5, pp. 353–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haurie, A. B., Viguier, L., 2003: A stochastic dynamic game of carbon emissions trading. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Special Issue ‘Modeling the economic Response to Global Climate Change’. Kluwer Academic Publishers. The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hyman, R.C., Reilly, J.M., Babiker, M.H., De Masin, A., Jacoby, H.D., 2003: Modeling Non-CO2Greenhouse Gas Abatement. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Special Issue ‘Modeling the economic Response to Global Climate Change’. Kluwer Academic Publishers. The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, 2002a: Energy Balances of OECD Countries 1971–2000. Database on CD. Energy Statistics Division — IEA Publications. Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, 2002b: Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 1971–2000. Database on CD. Energy Statistics Division — IEA Publications. Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, 2002c: World Energy Outlook 2002. Economic Analysis Division — OECD/IEA Publications. Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, 2002d: Renewables database. Energy Statistics Division — IEA <http://library.iea.org/renew/eng/ReportFolders/Rfview/explorerp.asp>.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (International Energy Agency), 2002e: Key World Energy Statistics 2001, OECD/IEA. Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2000: Special Report on Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of the Working Group III. of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanudia, A., Loulou, R., 1999: Advanced Bottom-up Modelling for National and Regional Energy Planning in Response to Climate Change, International Journal of Environment and Pollution, Vol. 12, Nos. 2/3, pp. 191–216.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kypreos, S., 1990: Energy Scenarios for Switzerland and Emission Control, Estimated with a Normative Model. PSI Bericht Nr. 90–70. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). June, 1990. Villigen, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kypreos, S., 1996: The Markal-Macro Model and the Climate Change. PSI Report Nr 96–14, Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), July 1996, Villigen, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Labriet, M., Loulou, R., Kanudia, A., 2004: Global energy and C02 emission scenarios: analysis with a 15-regions world MARKAL model. In:The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics, Advances to Global Change Research, ed. by A. Haurie and L. Viguier (Guest Editors). Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht, Netherlands. (Forthcoming)

    Google Scholar 

  • Loulou, R., Lavigne, D., 1996: MARKAL Model with Elastic Demands: Application to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control. In Carraro C. and Haurie A. (Editors). Operations Research and Environmental Management. pp. 201–220. Kluwer Academic Publishers. The Netherlands.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Manne, A., Richels, R., 2001: An alternative approach to establishing trade-offs among greenhouse gases. Nature 410, 675–677.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Manne, A., Richels, R., 2002: The Impacts of Learning-By-Doing on the Timing and Costs of CO2Abatement, Presented to the Energy Modelling Forum Study (EMF), May 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marsh, R., Edwards, N. R., and J. G. Shepherd, 2002: Development of a fast climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) for Earth System Science. Southampton Oceanography Centre Internal Document No. 83, pp. 50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Messner, S., 1997: Endogenised technological learning in an energy systems model, J. Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 7, pp. 291–313.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NCCR-Climate (The National Centers of Competence in Research), managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. <http://www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch>

  • PCAST (President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology), 1999: Powerful Partnerships: The Federal Role in International Co-operation on Energy Innovation. President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology. Panel on International Co-operation in Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment. Washington, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riahi, K., Roehrl, R.A., 2000: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Dynamics-as-Usual Scenario of Economic and Energy Development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 63 (2–3). pp 175–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogner, H.H., 1997: An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment. Vol. 22. pp 217–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sager, J., 2003: A Policy Analysis and Quantitative Assessment of Key Issues Arising from Climate Change Negotiations Following COP 7. PSI Report Nr 03–12, Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), April 2003, Villigen, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sager, J., 2003: An Analysis with the CERT model of The FSU Market Power in The Carbon Emissions Trading Market. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Special Issue ‘Modeling the economic Response to Global Climate Change’. Kluwer Academic Publishers. The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), 1999: The Kyoto Protocol to the Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC Climate Change Secretariat and UNEP, UNEP/IUC/99/10. Geneva, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2000: World energy assessment: Energy and the challenge of sustainability. United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Energy Council, edited by J. Goldemberg. New York, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T.M.L., Richels, R. and Edmonds, J.A., 1996: Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2concentrations. Nature 379, 240–243.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. Peter Rafaj
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Socrates Kypreos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Leonardo Barreto
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Geneva, Switzerland

    Alain Haurie

  2. Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland

    Laurent Viguier

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2005 Springer

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Rafaj, P., Kypreos, S., Barreto, L. (2005). Flexible Carbon Mitigation Policies: Analysis with a Global Multi-Regional MARKAL Model. In: Haurie, A., Viguier, L. (eds) The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 22. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3425-3_9

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation