Abstract
A new version of the advanced multi-region World MARKAL model has been developed and calibrated to the A1B scenario of IPCC over a 50-year time horizon. The analysis of the base and CO2constrained cases confirms and refines several conclusions observed by other models. Amongst them: a) the level of non-emitting electricity generation in the base case is a crucial assumption for defining CO2reduction opportunities; b) CO2capture and sequestration compete directly with renewable electricity generation and contribute to a major reduction in the marginal cost of CO2; c) the primary consumption of coal may increase in the long term when associated with the capture of flue gas CO2at power plants; d) in transportation, the substitution of oil by biomass is robust and much preferred to the other alternative technologies; e) the price-induced reduction of elastic demands also contributes to the emissions reduction. The resulting annualized cost of CO2policies remains under 1% of the GDP in 2050 for the stabilization of CO2concentration at 550 ppmv (A1B base case). Hydrogen production and end-uses technologies, CO2capture and sequestration, as well as non-CO2greenhouse gases would deserve more attention. Future work will focus on the modelling and comparison of the cooperative and non-cooperative international frameworks.
This research has been made possible thanks to the financial support by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds Québécois de recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies.
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Labriet, M., Loulou, R., Kanudia, A. (2005). Global Energy and CO2 Emission Scenarios: Analysis with a 15-Region World MARKAL Model. In: Haurie, A., Viguier, L. (eds) The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 22. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3425-3_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3425-3_8
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