Abstract
In this paper, we present a simultaneous equations model that provides a computationally efficient framework for computing long term, policy-dependent projections of global climate change. As part of our formulation, we explore the dynamic properties and numerical stability of the coupled system. We illustrate the framework with a numerical casestudy that utilizes the coupled system to compute projections of global-mean surface temperature change for three global carbon emissions control strategies. As part of our analysis, we explore the system’s sensitivity to changes in the numerical specification of two key scientific uncertainties concerning the global climate system.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Draft Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction. United Nations, Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1994.
Braddock, R., ET AL The IMAGE greenhouse model as a mathematical system. Applied Mathematical Modelling 18 (May 1994), 234–254.
Dowlatabadi, H. Integrated assessment models of climate change: An incomplete overview. Energy Policy 23, 4–5 (1995), 289–296.
Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., AND Ephraums, J. J., Eds. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990.
Janssen, M. A. Optimization of a non-linear dynamical system for global climate change. European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997), 322–335.
Nordhaus, W. D.Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1994.
Parson, E. A. Integrated assessment and environmental policy making: In pursuit of usefulness. Energy Policy 23, 4–5 (1995), 463–475.
Prinn, R., ET AL. Integrated Global System Model for climate policy analysis: I. Model framework and sensitivity studies. Tech. Rep. 7, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, June 1996.
Toth, F. L. Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change. Energy Policy 23, 4–5 (1995), 253–267.
Tucci, M. P. Stochastic sustainability in the presence of unknown parameters. Tech. Rep. 64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy, November 1995.
Valverde A., Jr., L. J.Uncertain Inference, Estimation, and Decision-Making in Integrated Assessments of Global Climate Change. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1997.
Valverde A., Jr., L. J., Jacoby, H. D., AND Kaufman, G. M. Sequential climate decisions under uncertainty: An integrated framework. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4, 2–3 (1999), 87–101.
Yang, Z., ET AL. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. Tech. Rep. 6, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers
About this paper
Cite this paper
Valverde, L.J. (2004). Integrated Assessment Modeling. In: Linkov, I., Ramadan, A.B. (eds) Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making. Nato Science Series: IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, vol 38. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-2243-3_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-2243-3_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-1895-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-2243-2
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)