Estimation of Travel Time Reliability Using Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Sensitivity
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This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the reliability of transportation networks, which could be used to support the design of networks that are robust to everyday disturbances, in the sense that an acceptable level of network performance will normally be maintained. While tools already exist to determine the expected benefits of travel demand management or new infrastructure, tools have yet to be developed which take into account unlikely disbenefits arising from disturbances (like gridlock, to take a dramatic example). This paper focuses on the performance reliability of transportation networks in the face of normal variations. It is proposed to use a logit Stochastic User Equilibrium assignment model for obtaining reliability measures related to travel times. It is shown that logit SUE sensitivity expressions can be computed and applied in order to estimate travel time distributions. Computational results are also discussed.
KeywordsTravel Time Transportation Planning Link Flow Link Travel Time Travel Time Distribution
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