Longitudinal Analysis of Car Ownership in Different Countries
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Household car ownership behavior in seven countries, characterized by different economic and cultural contexts, is analyzed by means of demographic modeling. This approach provides a powerful tool for long term forecasting of the car fleet.
Using data from series of household surveys, pseudo-panels are constructed according to the generation of household head; this is also done for homogeneous zones with respect to population density in France. Estimates are made for age and generation effects, and for the effects of the general economic context faced by households through income and price variables.
The differences between countries and zones can be explained by two main factors: the history of car ownership development and population density. Changes are likely to be occurring in the car ownership behavior of young American generations: they seem to be less motorized than the older ones.
KeywordsTransportation Planning Term Forecast Young Household Consumer Expenditure Survey Outer Suburb
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