Edward Bellamy and Joseph Schumpeter in the Year 2000

Abstract

Joseph Schumpeter, in his great History of Economic Analysis, dismisses the most influential vision of the future America ever had. Because the hero in Edward Bellamy’s novel, Looking Backward, 2000–1887, woke up in the year 2000, fifty years after Schumpeter’s death, after sleeping since 1887, a reappraisal is timely. Schumpeter was within his rights to exclude Bellamy. The introduction briefly summarizes Schumpeter’s views about Utopias. He may have made a mistake about the utopian work he thought highly of, Sir Thomas More’s Utopia. After this comes a discussion of Bellamy’s background and a short synopsis of the novel. Many of Bellamy’s predictions are described and then analyzed with respect to their accuracy. Schumpeter’s views on prophecy are stated. Although he sometimes hedged them, Schumpter made many predictions. Some of these are discussed. Most were wrong. The paper concludes with reasons both were so wrong and comments about attempts to foresee the future.

Jürgen Backhaus, Wolfgang Drechsler, Merle Kingman and other conference participants helped me with, useful critiques for which I thank them. 1 am particularly obligated to Mary Stone Senn who, in addition to making many specialized computer searches, was helpful in countless other ways. Thanks also to Anita Lauterstein who did much of the typing. Any errors are my own.