Skip to main content

Summary

In conclusion, we have attempted to illustrate how the area of risk assessment has made significant advances in the last 15 years. As the field moved from an emphasis on the prediction of violence and identification of “dangerous” persons to a risk assessment model, application of new research approaches led to optimism that improvements in evaluation of violence potential were possible. A substantial re-invigoration of research and clinical interest in the topic has ensued, which has resulted in much productive research determining the evidence for many risk factors for violence, as well as innovative ways to utilize that information to improve the risk assessment process. Our hope in making recommendations for the future is that the findings of the science of violence risk assessment can facilitate evidenced-based practice in this area, and that the science may be advanced through incorporation of theoretical perspectives to help understand as well as predict violence. Optimally, future work in this area will improve not only the quality of the risk assessment enterprise, but will do so in a way that will facilitate improved management of that risk.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • American Psychological Association. (1992). Ethical principles of psychologists and code of conduct. American Psychologist, 47, 1597–1611.

    Google Scholar 

  • American Psychological Association. (1994). Guidelines for child custody evaluations in divorce proceedings. American Psychologist, 49, 677–680.

    Google Scholar 

  • American Psychological Association (1999). Standards for educational and psychological testing. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berliner, L. (1996). Community notification of sex offenders: A new tool or a false promise? Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 11, 294–295.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boer, D., Hart, S., Kropp, R., & Webster, C. (1997). Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk—20. Vancouver, British Columbia: The British Columbia Institute Against Family Violence.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borum, R. (1996). Improving the clinical practice of violence risk assessment. American Psychologist, 51, 945–956.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Borum, R. (in press). Assessing violence risk among youth. Journal of Clinical Psychology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borum, R., Fein, R., Vossekuil, & Berglund, J. (1999). Threat assessment: Defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 17, 323–337.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Borum, R., Otto, R., & Golding, S. L. (1993). Improving clinical judgment and decision making in forensic evaluation. Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 21, 35–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooks, A. (1978). Notes on defining the dangerousness of the mentally ill. In C. Frederick (Ed.), Dangerous behavior. A problem in law and mental health. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cocozza, J., & Steadman, H. (1976). The failure of psychiatric predictions of dangerousness: Clear and convincing evidence. Rutgers Law Review, 29, 1084–1101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Committee on Ethical Guidelines for Forensic Psychologists. (1991). Specialty guidelines for forensic psychologists. Law and Human Behavior, 15, 655–665.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, D. J., Michie, C., Hart, S. D., & Hare, R. D. (1999). Evaluating the Screening Version of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-SV): An item response theory analysis. Psychological Assessment, 11, 3–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daly, M., & Wilson, M. (1988). Evolutionary social psychology and family homicide. Science, 242, 519–524.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, K. S., Cox, D., & Webster, C. D. (1999). Violence risk assessment: science and practice. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 4, 149–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, K. S., Ogloff, J. P., Nicholls, T. L., & Grant, I. (1999). Assessing risk for violence among psychiatric patients: The HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version. journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 67, 917–930.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, K. S., & Webster, C. D. (1999). Predicting violence in mentally and personality disordered individuals. In R. Roesch, S.D. Hart, & Ogloff, J.P. (Eds.), Psychology and the law: The state of the discipline (pp. 175–239). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elbogen, E. B., Calkins, C., Tomkins, A. J., & Scalora, M.J. (1999, July). Clinical practice and violence risk assessment: Availability of MacArthur risk factors across psychiatric settings. Paper presented at the Psychology and Law International Conference, Dublin, Ireland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eronen, M., Hakola, P., & Tiihonen, J. (1996). Mental disorders and homicidal behavior in Finland. Archives of General Psychiatry, 53, 497–591.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Estroff, S. E., Zimmer, C., & Lachicotte, W. S., & Benoit, J. (1994). The influence of social networks and social support on violence by persons with serious mental illness. Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 45, 669–679.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Faust, D., & Ziskin, J. (1988). The expert witness in psychiatry and psychology. Science, 241, 31–35.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Gardner, W., Lidz, C. W., Mulvey, E. P., & Shaw, E. C. (1996). A comparison of actuarial methods for identifying repetitively violent patients with mental illnesses. Law and Human Behavior, 20, 35–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glantz, M. D., & Johnson, J. L. (Eds.). (1999). Resilience and development: Positive life adaptations. New York: Plenum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grisso, T. (1986). Evaluating competencies: Forensic assessments and instruments. New York: Plenum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, alogrithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293–323.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. F., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19–30.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Haney, C. (1980). Psychology and legal change: On the limits of a factual jurisprudence. Law and Human Behavior, 17, 371–398.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119–136.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hare, R. D. (1991). Manual for the Hare Psychopathy Checklist—Revised. Toronto, Ontario: Multi-Health Systems.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hare, R. D. (1996). Psychopathy: A clinical construct whose time has come. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 23, 25–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315–335.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hart, S. D. (1998). The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issues. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 121–137.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heilbrun, K., (1997). Prediction versus management models relevant to risk assessment: The importance of legal decision-making context. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 347–359.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Heilbrun, K., O’Neill, M. L., Strohman, L. K., Bownam, Q., & Philipson, J. (2000). Expert approaches to communicating about violence risk. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 137–148.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hemphill, J. F., Hare, R. D., & Wong, S. (1998). Psychopathy and recidivism: A review. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 139–170.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hodgins, S., Mednick, S. A., Brennan, P. A., Schulsinger, F., & Engberg, M. (1996). Mental disorder and crime: Evidence from a birth cohort. Archives of General Psychiatry, 53, 489–496.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Klassen, D., & O’Connor, W. A. (1989). Assessing the risk of violence in released mental patients: A cross-validation study. Psychological Assessment: A Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1, 75–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kozol, H. R., Boucher, R., & Garofalo, R. (1972). The diagnosis and treatment of dangerousness. Crime and Delinquency, 18, 371–392.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kropp, P. R., & Hart, S. D. (2000). The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) Guide: Reliability and validity. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 101–118.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kropp, P. R., Hart, S., Webster, C. & Eaves, D. (1999). Manual for the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (3rd ed.). Toronto: Multi-Health Systems.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lidz, C. W., Mulvey, E. P., & Gardner, W. (1993). The accuracy of predictions of violence to others. Journal of the American Medical Association, 269, 1007–1011.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lieb, R. (1996). Community notification laws: “A step toward more effective solutions”. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 11, 298–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Link, B. G., Andrews, H. A., & Cullen, F. T. (1992). The violent and illegal behavior of mental patients reconsidered. American Sociological Review, 57, 275–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Link, B. G., Monahan, J., Steuve, A., & Cullen, R. T. (1999). Real in their consequences: A sociological approach to understanding the association between psychotic symptoms and violence. American Sociological Review, 64, 316–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Link, B. G., & Steuve, A. (1994). Psychotic symptoms and the violent/illegal behavior of mental patients compared to community controls. In J. Monahan, & H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 137–159). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Linnoila, V. M. I., & Virkkunen, M. (1992). Aggression, suicidality, and serotonin. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 53 (supplement), 46–51.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Litwack, T. R., & Schlesinger, L. B. (1999). Dangerousness risk assessments: Research, legal, and clinical considerations. In A. K. Hess & I. B. Weiner (Eds.), The handbook of forensic psychology (2nd ed., pp. 171–217). New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matson, S., & Lieb, R. (1997). Megan’s Law: A review of state and federal legislation. Olympia, Washington: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E. (1998). Empirically-based clinical evaluation and management of the potentially violent patient. In P.K. Kleespies (Ed.), Emergencies in mental health practice: Evaluation and management, (pp.182–202). New York: Guilford.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1986). Violence, civil commitment, and hospitalization. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 174, 107–111.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1991). Clinical assessment of the risk of violence among psychiatric inpatients. American Journal of Psychiatry, 148, 1317–1312.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1994). Screening for risk of inpatient violence: Validation of an actuarial tool. Law and Human Behaviar, 18, 579–586.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1995). Correlates of accuracy in the assessment of psychiatric inpatients’ risk of violence. American Journal of Psychiatry, 152, 901–906.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., Greenfield, T. K., & Binder, R. L (1988). Predictors of violence in civilly committed acute psychiatric patients. American Journal of Psychiatry, 145, 965–970.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, D. E., Lam, J. N., & Binder, R. L. (in press). Relevance of inter-rater agreement to violence risk assessment. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical vs. statistical prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Melton, G. B., Petrila, J., Poythress, N. G., & Slobogin, C. (1997). Psychological evaluations for the courts (2nd ed.). New York: Guilford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mercy, J. A., & O’Carroll. (1988). New directions in violence prediction: The public health arena. Violence and Victims, 3, 285–301.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J. (1981). Predicting violent behavior: An assessment of clinical techniques. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J. (1992). Mentaldisorder and violent behavior: Perceptions and evidence. American Psychologist, 47, 511–521.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (1983). Crime and mental disorder: An epidemiological approach. In N. Morris and N. Tonry (Eds). Crime and justice: An annual review of research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (1994a). Toward a rejuvenation of risk assessment research. In J. Monahan & H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 1–17). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (Eds.). (1994b). Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (1996). Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. American Psychologist, 51, 931–938.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Walker, L. (1988). Social science research in law: A new paradigm. American Psychologist, 43, 465–472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, J., & Walker, L. (1998). Social science in law: Cases and materials (4th ed.). Westbury, New York: Foundation Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783–792.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Mulvey, E. P., & Lidz, C. W. (1995). Conditional prediction: A model for research on dangerousness to others in a new era. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 18, 129–143.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council. (1989). Improving risk communication. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Novaco, R. (1994). Anger as a risk factor for violence among the mentally disordered. In J. Monahan and H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 21–59). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Otto, R. (1992). The prediction of dangerous behavior: A review and analysis of “second generation” research. Forensic Reports, 5, 103–134.

    Google Scholar 

  • Otto, R. (in press). Assessing and managing violence risk in outpatient settings. Journal of Clinical Psychology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentky, R. A. (1996). Community notification and constructive risk reduction. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 11, 295–298.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G.T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raine, A., Todd, L., Bihrle, S., LaCasse, L., & Colleti, P. (2000). Reduced prefrontal gray matter volume and reduced autonomic activity in antisocial personality disorder. Archives of General Psychiatry, 57, 119–127.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, M., & Fienley, M. (Eds.). (1991). Violence in America: A public health approach. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossi, A. M., Jacobs, M., Monteleone, J., Olsen, R., Surber, R. W., Winkler, E. L., & Womack, A. (1986). Characteristics of psychiatric patients who engage in assaultive or other fearinducing behaviors. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 174, 154–160.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Rutter, M. (1990). Psychosocial resilience and protective mechanisms. In J. Rolf, A. S. Masten, D. Ciccchetti, K. H. Nuechterlein, & S. Weintraub (Eds.), Risk and protective factors in the development of psychopathology (pp. 181–214). New Your: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schram, D. D., & Milloy, C. D. (1995). Community notification: A study of offender characteristics and recidivism. Olympia, Washington: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shah, S. (1978). Dangerousness: Some definitional, conceptual, and public policy dilemmas. In C. Frederick (Ed.), Dangerous behavior: A problem in law and mental health (pp. 153–191). Washington D.C.: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silver, E., Mulvey, E.P., & Monahan, J. (1999). Assessing violence risk among discharged psychiatric patients: Toward and ecological approach. Law and Human Behavior, 23,237–255.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Steadman, H. J. (1977). A new look at recidivism among Patuxent inmates. Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 5, 200–209.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Steadman, H. J. (in press). From dangerousness to risk assessment of community violence: Taking stock at the turn of the century. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

    Google Scholar 

  • Steadman, H. J., & Cocozza, J. (1974). Careers of the criminally insane. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington, Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Steadman, H. J., Mulvey, E.P., Monahan, J., Robbins, P. C., Appelbaum, P. S., Grisso, T., Roth, L. H., & Silver, E. (1998). Violence by people discharged from acute psychiatric inpatient facilities and by others in the same neighborhoods. Archives of General Psychiatry, 55, 393–401.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Steadman, H. J., Silver, E., Monahan, J, Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C., Mulvey, E. P., Grisso, T., Roth, L. H., & Banks, S. (2000). A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 83–100.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Straus, M. A., Hamby, S. L., Boney-McCoy, S., & Sugarman, D. B. (1996). The revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2): Development and preliminary psychometric data. Journal of Family Issues, 17, 283–316.

    Google Scholar 

  • Straznickas, K. A., McNiel, D. E., & Binder, R. L. (1993). Violence toward family caregivers of the mentally ill. Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 44, 385–387.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, J. W. (1994). Mental disorder, substance abuse, and community violence: An epidemiological approach. In J. Monahan & H. J. Steadman (Eds.), Violence and mental disorder: Developments in risk assessment (pp. 101–137). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, J. W., Borum, R., Swartz, M. S., & Monahan, J. (1996). Psychotic symptoms and disorders and the risk of violent behavior in the community. Criminal Behavior and Mental Health, 6, 317–338.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, J. W., Holzer, C., Ganju, V, & Jono, R. (1990). Violence and psychiatric disorder in the community: Evidence from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Surveys. Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 41, 761–770.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tardiff, K. (1996). Concise guide to assessment and management of violent patients (2nd ed.). Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tardiff, K., & Sweillam, A. (1980). Assault, suicide, and mental illness. Archives of General Psychiatry, 37, 164–169.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Thornberry, T., & Jacoby, J. (1979). The criminally insane: A community follow-up of mentally ill offenders. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Volavka, J. (1995). Neurobiology of violence. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster, C. D., Douglas, K., Eaves, D., & Hart, S. D. (1997). HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence (version 2). Burnaby, British Columbia: Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C., & Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The Violence Prediction Scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Toronto: University of Toronto.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

McNiel, D.E. et al. (2004). Risk Assessment. In: Taking Psychology and Law into the Twenty-First Century. Perspectives in Law & Psychology, vol 14. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47944-3_5

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47944-3_5

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-306-46760-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-306-47944-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics